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FINAL+4PIT
PIT

PIT

65-84

5
1
WSH

WSH

61-87

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
29,887 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 5 · WSH 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0000000415
WSH0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    233
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    156
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 94
    155
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 93
    235
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 92
    14
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 92
    116
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 13·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Jared Triolo

Jared Triolo

3B

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Dylan Crews

Dylan Crews

CF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT65-84
5
1
WSH61-87
PIT65-84·WSH61-87
PIT

PIT

65-84

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-55121101
SPRINT28.483
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-22100030
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-44120010
SPRINT27.969
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-55000000
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-55112001
SPRINT27.662
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
1-22010001
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-44012000
SPRINT27.662
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-44000001
C. DevanneyC. Devanney★SS
0-22000002
O. CruzO. CruzCF
0-11000011
L. PegueroL. PegueroSS
0-11100000
Team7-3535575167
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ChandlerB. Chandler★SP
6.0211070
C. MlodzinskiC. MlodzinskiSP
2.0100030
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000100
Team9.03111100
WSH

WSH

61-87

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-33000012
SPRINT27.457
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000002
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT29.395
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-33000000
J. AlfaroJ. Alfaro★C
0-33000003
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-33110001
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33000001
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-33011000
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro1B
0-11000000
Team3-30301310110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AlvarezA. Alvarez★RP
6.0300150
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000020
C. HenryC. HenryRP
0.1022200
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
0.1222100
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
0.1100000
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
1.0111201
Team9.0755671

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    81 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      56%·99.2 mph·48% whiff
    • CH
      27%·92.1 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      10%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·85.3 mph·25% whiff
  • C. Mlodzinski
    30 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      27%·88.5 mph·57% whiff
    • CU
      23%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      3%·93.0 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      42%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.8 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • A. Alvarez
    85 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      34%·91.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      28%·82.6 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      26%·82.3 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    28 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      43%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      25%·72.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      21%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Henry
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      83%·87.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      17%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • CH
      45%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·78.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·88.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      67%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

3

5

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Sep 12PITPIT5@WSHWSH6
Sep 13PITPIT5@WSHWSH1today
Sep 14PITPIT3@WSHWSH4

Season series

PIT leads series 4-2

Apr 14WSHWSH3@PITPIT10
Apr 15WSHWSH3@PITPIT0
Apr 16WSHWSH1@PITPIT6
Apr 17WSHWSH0@PITPIT1
Sep 12PITPIT5@WSHWSH6
Sep 13PITPIT5@WSHWSH1today
Sep 14PITPIT3@WSHWSH4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 44pp · Top 8th Inning

PITPIT
J. Triolo

J. Triolo

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H

WSHWSH
D. Crews

D. Crews

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.667 OPS

A. Alvarez

A. Alvarez

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat WSH 5-1. McCutchen's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 64% WP

Reynolds · grounded into double play, second to first, Pham out at second.

WSHBottom 6th Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 77% WP

Hassell III · singled to left, Crews scored.

PITTop 8th Inning · 2-1
+44pp→ 73% WP

McCutchen · singled to right, Peguero scored and Pham scored, Reynolds to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0000000415
WSH0000010001

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · WSH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

III 1

0
0

Inn 7

4
0

Inn 8

McCutchen 2

1
0

Inn 9

Triolo 1

PIT
WSH

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  3. B9

    Lile popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  6. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  7. B9

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  8. B9

    Chaparro fouled out to catcher.

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

    −2pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  11. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Andres Chaparro

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  12. B9

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  13. B9

    Wood walked.

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

    +1pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  19. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to James Wood

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  20. B9

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  21. B9

    Abrams grounded out to first.

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

    −0.8pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  25. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  26. B9

    Santana relieved Mlodzinski

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  29. T9

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

  30. T9

    McCutchen flied out to left.

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 1

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

5

Runs

1

7

Hits

3

0

Errors

1

10

TB

3

1

HR

0

6

BB

1

7

K

10

20

LOB

7

Player projections

WSH vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.0%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.1%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.3%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483