• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2PHI
NYM

NYM

76-71

4
6
PHI

PHI

87-60

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
40,098 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

NYM 4 · PHI 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM4000000004
PHI000213006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 12, 25sim 97
    72
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 96
    54
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    58
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 95
    286
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 94
    2310
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    213
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Sep 11·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off New York Mets, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Otto Kemp

Otto Kemp

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM76-71
4
6
PHI87-60
NYM76-71·PHI87-60
NYM

NYM

76-71

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000003
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44111002
SPRINT25.513
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-33111000
SPRINT28.278
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-33012002
SPRINT25.411
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33000002
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-33000001
H. SengerH. Senger★C
0-22000001
F. AlvarezF. AlvarezC
0-11000000
Team5-31314540013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
5.0733181
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
0.2333110
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.1100100
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000000
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0000010
Team8.011663101
PHI

PHI

87-60

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
2-55021001
SPRINT27.662
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-33010012
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
2-44022001
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-44000001
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
2-33220010
SPRINT27.148
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
2-44223100
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-44010001
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33100012
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-44110002
Team11-343461161310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
8.05440100
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000030
Team9.05440130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    86 pitches·34% CSW
    • CU
      23%·79.8 mph·69% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.0 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.4 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.9 mph·44% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      40%·97.7 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      35%·92.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      15%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·98.4 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      5%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • E. Diaz
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      43%·89.2 mph·20% whiff
  • B. Raley
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      67%·82.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      25%·88.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    6 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      83%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·74.4 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    97 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      45%·87.1 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      26%·97.3 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      19%·88.4 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.6 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Duran
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • FF
      45%·102.0 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      45%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      9%·98.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

11

4

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 6-1

Jun 20NYMNYM2@PHIPHI10
Jun 21NYMNYM11@PHIPHI4
Jun 22NYMNYM1@PHIPHI7
Sep 8NYMNYM0@PHIPHI1
Sep 9NYMNYM3@PHIPHI9
Sep 10NYMNYM3@PHIPHI11
Sep 11NYMNYM4@PHIPHI6today

Season series

NYM win series 7-6

Apr 21PHIPHI4@NYMNYM5
Apr 22PHIPHI1@NYMNYM5
Apr 23PHIPHI3@NYMNYM4
Jun 20NYMNYM2@PHIPHI10
Jun 21NYMNYM11@PHIPHI4
Jun 22NYMNYM1@PHIPHI7
Aug 25PHIPHI3@NYMNYM13
Aug 26PHIPHI5@NYMNYM6
Aug 27PHIPHI0@NYMNYM6
Sep 8NYMNYM0@PHIPHI1
Sep 9NYMNYM3@PHIPHI9
Sep 10NYMNYM3@PHIPHI11
Sep 11NYMNYM4@PHIPHI6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 6th Inning

NYMNYM
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.667 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
O. Kemp

O. Kemp

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

8.0 IP · 10 K · 4 ER · 5 H

How it ended

PHI beat NYM 6-4.

Win probability

PHI vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 4th Inning · 4-2
+15pp→ 30% WP

Kemp · homered to center (422 feet), Castellanos scored.

PHIBottom 6th Inning · 4-4
+16pp→ 68% WP

Kemp · doubled to center, Castellanos scored.

PHIBottom 6th Inning · 4-5
+16pp→ 76% WP

Bader · singled to center, Kemp scored, Marsh to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM4000000004
PHI00021300—6

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · PHI won 3

4
0

Inn 1

Marte 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Kemp 2

0
1

Inn 5

Harper 1

0
3

Inn 6

Kemp 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
PHI

Play-by-play · 492 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  2. T9

    Vientos struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  6. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Mark Vientos

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  7. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  8. T9

    Alonso struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

    +3pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  14. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Pete Alonso

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  15. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  16. T9

    J. Soto struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

    +3pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  20. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Juan Soto

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  21. T9

    Duran relieved Luzardo

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  24. B8

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  25. B8

    Bader grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

  30. B8

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Harrison Bader

    ·

    NYM 4·PHI 6

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

4

Runs

6

5

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

6

TB

19

0

HR

1

0

BB

3

13

K

10

3

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.0± 0.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.5± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Bryce HarperPHI
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Edmundo SosaPHI
    0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    63.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.6%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.