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FINAL+6PHI
KC

KC

74-74

2
8
PHI

PHI

88-60

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
41,099 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

KC 2 · PHI 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC1000001002
PHI013200208

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 12·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Kansas City Royals, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Tyler Tolbert

Tyler Tolbert

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Max Kepler

Max Kepler

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC74-74
2
8
PHI88-60
KC74-74·PHI88-60
KC

KC

74-74

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-33000000
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33111000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT26.225
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.838
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-33100011
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22000000
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-11000000
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
1-11010000
C. JensenC. JensenC
0-11000001
Team7-3333272026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
3.01066231
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
2.0100100
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0200020
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0122111
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
1.0000010
Team8.01488472
PHI

PHI

88-60

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
2-55121002
SPRINT27.662
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44111012
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
2-44122111
SPRINT2744
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44110001
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
2-44121001
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
2-22020020
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-33000000
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-44122100
SPRINT28.688
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
2-33121000
SPRINT26.225
W. WilsonW. Wilson3B
0-11100000
Team14-34348148247
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
5.0511130
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0000010
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0111100
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0100010
M. LazarM. LazarRP
1.0000010
Team9.0722260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • M. Lorenzen
    72 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      24%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.2 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.3 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      11%·89.7 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      7%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      4%·83.8 mph·— whiff
  • S. Long
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      19%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·75.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.5 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      41%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Avila
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      45%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      36%·82.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.6 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • W. Buehler
    90 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.8 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.6 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      10%·76.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      3%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      91%·93.9 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Banks
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      39%·87.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      22%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.2 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      22%·82.0 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      11%·88.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

14

2

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Sep 12KCKC2@PHIPHI8today
Sep 13KCKC6@PHIPHI8
Sep 14KCKC10@PHIPHI3

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Sep 12KCKC2@PHIPHI8today
Sep 13KCKC6@PHIPHI8
Sep 14KCKC10@PHIPHI3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

KCKC
T. Tolbert

T. Tolbert

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 10 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
M. Kepler

M. Kepler

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat KC 8-2.

Win probability

PHI vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 47% WP

Garcia · singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.

PHIBottom 2nd Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 59% WP

Kemp · doubled to center.

PHIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+14pp→ 83% WP

Harper · homered to left center (400 feet), Schwarber scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC1000001002
PHI01320020—8

Period scoring

KC won 1 · PHI won 4

1
0

Inn 1

Garcia 1

0
1

Inn 2

March 1

0
3

Inn 3

Harper 2

0
2

Inn 4

Bader 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
2

Inn 7

Jr. 1

Stott 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

KC
PHI

Play-by-play · 590 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  2. T9

    Jensen struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  9. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Carter Jensen

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  10. T9

    Jensen hit for Tolbert

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  11. T9

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  12. T9

    Caglianone flied out to right.

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  14. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Jac Caglianone

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  15. T9

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  16. T9

    Massey flied out to left.

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  19. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Michael Massey

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  20. T9

    Lazar relieved Kerkering

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 2·PHI 8

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 2·PHI 8

  23. B8

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  24. B8

    Harper grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  25. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  26. B8

    Luinder Avila pitches to Bryce Harper

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  27. B8

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  28. B8

    Schwarber flied out to right.

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

  30. B8

    Luinder Avila pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    ·

    KC 2·PHI 8

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

2

Runs

8

7

Hits

14

0

Errors

0

7

TB

26

0

HR

2

2

BB

4

6

K

7

13

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.0± 0.8high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    0.9± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.5± 1.0high

RBIs

  • Carter JensenKC
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high
  • Bryce HarperPHI
    0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.6± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    62.6%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.3%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.5%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 23, 25sim 97
    286
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 97
    214
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 95
    14
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    77
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 95
    11
    10(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    14
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs