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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7CLE
CLE

CLE

69-69

8
1
BOS

BOS

78-63

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,658 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 8 · BOS 1 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE1600000108
BOS0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 3·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
George Valera

George Valera

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Romy Gonzalez

Romy Gonzalez

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE69-69
8
1
BOS78-63
CLE69-69·BOS78-63
CLE

CLE

69-69

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
3-55231001
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-44010010
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-33102010
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-44011010
J. NoelJ. Noel★RF
0-55000002
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
2-44220000
SPRINT27.354
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-33112102
SPRINT26.530
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
2-33121000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-44110001
G. ValeraG. ValeraLF
1-11010000
Team12-36368127136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CantilloJ. Cantillo★SP
6.0511270
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.2200020
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.1000010
Team9.07112100
BOS

BOS

78-63

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. EatonN. Eaton★OF
1-33010001
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000001
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-33000002
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
2-44020000
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
1-33110011
SPRINT26.326
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000000
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-44011001
C. WongC. Wong★C
1-33010002
N. LoweN. LoweDH
0-11000001
D. HamiltonD. HamiltonSS
0-11000000
A. SanchezA. SanchezC
0-11000001
Team7-34341710210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BernardinoB. Bernardino★RP
0.2111100
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
0.1444011
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0221000
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
4.0200040
D. MayD. MaySP
3.0311210
Team9.01287361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • J. Cantillo
    104 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      39%·91.0 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      26%·77.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      24%·77.7 mph·9% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.0 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Junis
    29 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      38%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·86.7 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      17%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      74%·94.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.9 mph·100% whiff

BOS

  • Z. Kelly
    63 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      33%·91.1 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      11%·82.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. May
    53 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      25%·89.4 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      65%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·76.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      44%·96.5 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      31%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      19%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Matz
    14 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      43%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·78.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

7

8

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Sep 1CLECLE4@BOSBOS6
Sep 2CLECLE7@BOSBOS11
Sep 3CLECLE8@BOSBOS1today

Season series

BOS wins series 4-2

Apr 25BOSBOS0@CLECLE0
Apr 26BOSBOS4@CLECLE5
Apr 26BOSBOS7@CLECLE3
Apr 27BOSBOS13@CLECLE3
Sep 1CLECLE4@BOSBOS6
Sep 2CLECLE7@BOSBOS11
Sep 3CLECLE8@BOSBOS1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 2nd Inning

CLECLE
G. Valera

G. Valera

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

BOSBOS
R. Gonzalez

R. Gonzalez

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

Z. Kelly

Z. Kelly

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

CLE beat BOS 8-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+15pp→ 66% WP

Arias · homered to left center (414 feet), Naylor scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE1600000108
BOS0001000001

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · BOS won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Ram 1

6
0

Inn 2

Arias 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Sogard 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Kayfus 1

0
0

Inn 9

CLE
BOS

Play-by-play · 602 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  3. B9

    Sánchez struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  11. B9

    Erik Sabrowski pitches to Ali Sanchez

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  12. B9

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  13. B9

    Sogard lined out to left.

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  18. B9

    Erik Sabrowski pitches to Nick Sogard

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  19. B9

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  20. B9

    Rafaela lined out to center.

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  24. B9

    Erik Sabrowski pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  27. T9

    · ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  28. T9

    Noel flied out to left.

    · ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 8·BOS 1

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

8

Runs

1

12

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

19

TB

8

1

HR

0

3

BB

2

6

K

10

17

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294

Player projections

BOS vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.2± 2.4low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    64.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.0%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.5%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 29, 25sim 96
    234
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 95
    54
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 95
    214
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 93
    2310
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 92
    72
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 92
    155
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs