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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8PHI
NYM

NYM

76-70

3
11
PHI

PHI

86-60

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
38,090 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

NYM 3 · PHI 11 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0001000113
PHI2000241211

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 97
    1310
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 97
    12
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    76
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    213
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 95
    2310
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    710
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off New York Mets, 11–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Hayden Senger

Hayden Senger

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Max Kepler

Max Kepler

LF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

5

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM76-70
3
11
PHI86-60
NYM76-70·PHI86-60
NYM

NYM

76-70

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-33000000
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
3-55231100
SPRINT25.513
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-33000012
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.29
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
2-44021001
SPRINT25.411
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-44000000
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-33000002
J. SiriJ. Siri★LF
0-22000002
L. AcunaL. Acuna★CF
0-22000000
R. MauricioR. MauricioSS
0-11000010
H. SengerH. SengerC
1-11110000
C. MullinsC. MullinsCF
1-11010010
B. BatyB. Baty3B
1-22011001
SPRINT26.735
Team9-3535393139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
4.0644350
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.1444020
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.2111141
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0322011
Team8.01411114122
PHI

PHI

86-60

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
2-55220003
SPRINT27.662
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-22110031
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44211100
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-44221002
SPRINT28.381
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
3-55232001
SPRINT28.175
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
3-44135100
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
1-44111003
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-44010011
D. WaltonD. Walton★2B
0-55001001
Team14-37371114112412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
6.0411160
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0100120
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
1.0111011
L. TrivinoL. TrivinoRP
1.0311100
Team9.0933391

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    76 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.7 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      16%·82.6 mph·44% whiff
    • FC
      14%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    34 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      24%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·89.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      9%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      58%·99.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·89.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·82.4 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soto
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      45%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      41%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      5%·98.6 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    93 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      57%·95.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      34%·86.8 mph·35% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    29 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      45%·97.7 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      34%·86.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Trivino
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      58%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·81.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • SI
      71%·97.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      29%·90.6 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

14

3

Runs

11

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 6-1

Jun 20NYMNYM2@PHIPHI10
Jun 21NYMNYM11@PHIPHI4
Jun 22NYMNYM1@PHIPHI7
Sep 8NYMNYM0@PHIPHI1
Sep 9NYMNYM3@PHIPHI9
Sep 10NYMNYM3@PHIPHI11today
Sep 11NYMNYM4@PHIPHI6

Season series

NYM lead series 7-5

Apr 21PHIPHI4@NYMNYM5
Apr 22PHIPHI1@NYMNYM5
Apr 23PHIPHI3@NYMNYM4
Jun 20NYMNYM2@PHIPHI10
Jun 21NYMNYM11@PHIPHI4
Jun 22NYMNYM1@PHIPHI7
Aug 25PHIPHI3@NYMNYM13
Aug 26PHIPHI5@NYMNYM6
Aug 27PHIPHI0@NYMNYM6
Sep 8NYMNYM0@PHIPHI1
Sep 9NYMNYM3@PHIPHI9
Sep 10NYMNYM3@PHIPHI11today
Sep 11NYMNYM4@PHIPHI6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 5th Inning

NYMNYM
H. Senger

H. Senger

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

PHIPHI
M. Kepler

M. Kepler

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat NYM 11-3.

Win probability

PHI vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 4th Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 28% WP

J. Soto · doubled.

PHIBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+8pp→ 73% WP

Walton · grounded out to pitcher.

PHIBottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+10pp→ 87% WP

Marsh · doubled to right, Realmuto scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0001000113
PHI20002412—11

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · PHI won 5

0
2

Inn 1

Realmuto 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Marte 1

0
2

Inn 5

Marsh 1

0
4

Inn 6

Kepler 2

0
1

Inn 7

Harper 1

1
2

Inn 8

Soto 1

Kepler 1

1

Inn 9

Baty 1

NYM
PHI

Play-by-play · 615 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  2. T9

    J. Soto flied out to center.

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  6. T9

    Lou Trivino pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  7. T9

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  8. T9

    Mauricio walked, Baty to second.

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  13. T9

    Lou Trivino pitches to Ronny Mauricio

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  14. T9

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  15. T9

    Baty singled to center, Senger scored, Mullins to third.

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  17. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  24. T9

    Lou Trivino pitches to Brett Baty

    · ·

    NYM 3·PHI 11

  25. T9

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  26. T9

    Mullins singled to right, Senger to second.

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  28. T9

    Lou Trivino pitches to Cedric Mullins

    · ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  29. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

  30. T9

    Senger singled to right.

    ·

    NYM 2·PHI 11

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

3

Runs

11

9

Hits

14

0

Errors

0

13

TB

22

1

HR

2

3

BB

4

9

K

12

13

LOB

26

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.0± 0.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.5± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Bryce HarperPHI
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Edmundo SosaPHI
    0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    62.4%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.6%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.4%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.