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FINAL+7PIT
PIT

PIT

61-76

10
3
BOS

BOS

75-62

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,391 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 10 · BOS 3 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT10003500110
BOS0011010003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 1, 25sim 96
    54
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    213
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    1310
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 94
    57
    2(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    12
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 94
    214
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 30·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.300OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Carlos Narvaez

Carlos Narvaez

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT61-76
10
3
BOS75-62
PIT61-76·BOS75-62
PIT

PIT

61-76

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-33310011
SPRINT28.483
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-44221011
SPRINT24.85
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-22112030
SPRINT27.969
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-44012010
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
2-55120001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-55022000
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-55111101
SPRINT28.483
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-44110012
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-55110003
Team12-373710128179
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. OviedoJ. Oviedo★SP
5.0322361
M. BurrowsM. BurrowsSP
2.0511020
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.0000000
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.0000000
Team9.0833381
BOS

BOS

75-62

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-55010003
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-55000001
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-33220010
SPRINT27.969
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-33010010
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
2-44022001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33000000
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-44000001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-33111111
SPRINT257
Team8-3434383138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
5.1876451
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
0.2222210
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0000030
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0000000
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.0211100
Team9.012109791

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • J. Oviedo
    79 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      29%·95.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.7 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      24%·77.7 mph·57% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.6 mph·33% whiff
  • M. Burrows
    44 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·78.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      11%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      38%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      31%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·90.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·75.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·79.5 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      75%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·83.5 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • D. May
    97 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      39%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      39%·84.2 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      10%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      2%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      57%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·76.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·77.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      5%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hicks
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      73%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·84.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    13 pitches·62% CSW
    • SI
      38%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·81.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • S. Matz
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      63%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

10

Runs

3

0

Errors

2

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Aug 29PITPIT4@BOSBOS2
Aug 30PITPIT10@BOSBOS3today
Aug 31PITPIT2@BOSBOS5

Season series

PIT leads series 2-0

Aug 29PITPIT4@BOSBOS2
Aug 30PITPIT10@BOSBOS3today
Aug 31PITPIT2@BOSBOS5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 5th Inning

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.300 OPS

J. Oviedo

J. Oviedo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

BOSBOS
C. Narvaez

C. Narvaez

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 4 BB

How it ended

PIT beat BOS 10-3. Reynolds's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+18pp→ 65% WP

Reynolds · singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored and Triolo scored, Horwitz to third.

PITTop 6th Inning · 5-2
+13pp→ 79% WP

Cruz · homered to center (426 feet).

PITTop 6th Inning · 7-2
+12pp→ 94% WP

Horwitz · singled to center, Bart scored and Triolo scored on throwing error by center fielder Rafaela, Horwitz to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT10003500110
BOS0011010003

Period scoring

PIT won 4 · BOS won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Pham 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Narv 1

0
1

Inn 4

Gonz 1

3
0

Inn 5

Reynolds 2

5
1

Inn 6

Horwitz 2

Gonz 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Cruz 1

PIT
BOS

Play-by-play · 601 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  2. B9

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  3. B9

    Bregman popped out to first.

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  6. B9

    Evan Sisk pitches to Alex Bregman

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  7. B9

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  8. B9

    Anthony grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  16. B9

    Evan Sisk pitches to Roman Anthony

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  17. B9

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  18. B9

    Narváez grounded out to second.

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  23. B9

    Evan Sisk pitches to Carlos Narvaez

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  24. B9

    Sisk relieved Ramírez

    ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  27. T9

    · ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  28. T9

    Kiner-Falefa grounded into double play, second to first, Bart out at second.

    · ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 10·BOS 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

10

Runs

3

12

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

17

TB

12

1

HR

1

7

BB

3

9

K

8

23

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

BOS vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Oneil CruzPIT
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    63.7%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.1%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.