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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6NYY
DET

DET

84-63

3
9
NYY

NYY

81-65

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
40,608 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

DET 3 · NYY 9 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0100001013
NYY122400009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 11·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Detroit Tigers, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Andy Ibanez

Andy Ibanez

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET84-63
3
9
NYY81-65
DET84-63·NYY81-65
DET

DET

84-63

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-33011021
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-44000012
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-33000001
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000001
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-33110011
SPRINT27.969
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.381
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-44122101
SPRINT27.765
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
1-22010001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT27.251
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-11000000
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
1-11010000
T. SweeneyT. SweeneySS
0-22000001
Team8-3434383149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. HoltonT. Holton★RP
1.0222021
S. Gipson-LongS. Gipson-LongRP
2.1777032
B. HornB. HornRP
1.1200110
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
1.1100110
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
0.1100200
K. MonteroK. MonteroSP
1.2100130
Team8.014995103
NYY

NYY

81-65

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
1-55111003
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
3-44332201
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44011010
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-55111103
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-44122010
SPRINT28.175
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
2-55020002
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-44221010
SPRINT26.941
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
2-33121010
SPRINT28.278
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-33000011
Team14-373791493510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
6.0511270
R. YarbroughR. YarbroughRP
3.0322221
Team9.0833491

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • S. Gipson-Long
    55 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      27%·82.1 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      27%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·90.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      9%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Horn
    31 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      32%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      26%·84.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      23%·88.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.0 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Montero
    31 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      32%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      19%·94.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      13%·80.5 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Holton
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      39%·89.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      30%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·83.4 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      48%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.4 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      80%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.4 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    95 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      21%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·82.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      1%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Yarbrough
    49 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      35%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·77.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      20%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·71.6 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      8%·87.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

14

3

Runs

9

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Sep 9DETDET12@NYYNYY2
Sep 10DETDET11@NYYNYY1
Sep 11DETDET3@NYYNYY9today

Season series

DET wins series 4-2

Apr 7NYYNYY2@DETDET6
Apr 8NYYNYY0@DETDET5
Apr 9NYYNYY4@DETDET3
Sep 9DETDET12@NYYNYY2
Sep 10DETDET11@NYYNYY1
Sep 11DETDET3@NYYNYY9today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

DETDET
A. Ibanez

A. Ibanez

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Gipson-Long

S. Gipson-Long

RP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 3 K · 7 ER · 7 H

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat DET 9-3.

Win probability

NYY vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 63% WP

Judge · homered to center (413 feet).

NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 66% WP

Rice · doubled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.

NYYTop 3rd Inning · 1-3
+11pp→ 76% WP

Carpenter · lined into double play, second to shortstop, Torres doubled off second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0100001013
NYY12240000—9

Period scoring

DET won 1 · NYY won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Judge 1

1
2

Inn 2

Dingler 1

Rice 1

0
2

Inn 3

Judge 1

0
4

Inn 4

Jr. 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Dingler 1

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Torres 1

DET
NYY

Play-by-play · 618 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 3·NYY 9

  2. T9

    Carpenter grounded out to third.

    ·

    DET 3·NYY 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·NYY 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 3·NYY 9

  5. T9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Kerry Carpenter

    ·

    DET 3·NYY 9

  6. T9

    ·

    DET 3·NYY 9

  7. T9

    Torres grounded out to shortstop, Báez scored.

    · ·

    DET 3·NYY 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 3·NYY 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  10. T9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Gleyber Torres

    · ·

    DET 3·NYY 9

  11. T9

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  12. T9

    Báez tripled to right.

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  15. T9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Javier Baez

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  16. T9

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  17. T9

    Sweeney struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  22. T9

    Ryan Yarbrough pitches to Trey Sweeney

    ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    DET 2·NYY 9

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    DET 2·NYY 9

  25. B8

    · ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  26. B8

    Rice lined out to right.

    · ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 2·NYY 9

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

3

Runs

9

8

Hits

14

0

Errors

0

14

TB

25

1

HR

3

4

BB

5

9

K

10

12

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    54.1%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    611
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 96
    75
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    257
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 93
    67
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 93
    57
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 93
    124
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs