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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10DET
DET

DET

84-62

11
1
NYY

NYY

80-65

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
36,727 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 11 · NYY 1 (by 10)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET00002015311
NYY0000000101

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 22, 25sim 97
    75
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 96
    63
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    122
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    198
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    124
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 94
    612
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into New York Yankees and beat them, 11–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Colt Keith

Colt Keith

3B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Austin Slater

Austin Slater

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET84-62
11
1
NYY80-65
DET84-62·NYY80-65
DET

DET

84-62

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
1-33010002
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-55013001
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-55110002
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
3-55230000
SPRINT26.123
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44113101
SPRINT2744
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
1-44010000
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
3-55230001
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
2-44321010
SPRINT28.381
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-44010000
K. CarpenterK. CarpenterRF
1-22112101
SPRINT26.735
C. KeithC. Keith3B
1-11112100
SPRINT28.381
Team16-4242111611318
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
5.0200170
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0100010
T. MeltonT. MeltonSP
2.0211141
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
1.0300010
Team9.08112131
NYY

NYY

80-65

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-33010012
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33000001
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44000001
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-33000002
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-44000003
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-44111101
SPRINT25.18
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-33010001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-11010000
A. SlaterA. SlaterRF
1-11010000
SPRINT27.662
J. DominguezJ. DominguezLF
1-11010000
SPRINT26.838
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
1-22010001
Team8-32321811213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
6.0522160
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
0.1211010
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0333011
T. HillT. HillRP
0.2222001
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
0.1333001
A. SlaterA. SlaterRF
0.2100000
SPRINT27.662
Team9.0161111183

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    99 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      51%·93.4 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.8 mph·9% whiff
    • KC
      19%·77.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      1%·87.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Melton
    31 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      52%·97.4 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      10%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      3%·95.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      39%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.0 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Holton
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      36%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.0 mph·100% whiff

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    102 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.3 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.6 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      12%·91.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      1%·77.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Doval
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      38%·97.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      38%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      37%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      42%·84.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      33%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·74.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      64%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Slater
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • EP
      100%·38.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

8

11

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Sep 9DETDET12@NYYNYY2
Sep 10DETDET11@NYYNYY1today
Sep 11DETDET3@NYYNYY9

Season series

DET leads series 4-1

Apr 7NYYNYY2@DETDET6
Apr 8NYYNYY0@DETDET5
Apr 9NYYNYY4@DETDET3
Sep 9DETDET12@NYYNYY2
Sep 10DETDET11@NYYNYY1today
Sep 11DETDET3@NYYNYY9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 5th Inning

DETDET
C. Keith

C. Keith

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
A. Slater

A. Slater

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat NYY 11-1. Torres's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+25pp→ 70% WP

Torres · singled to center, Dingler scored and Meadows scored, Báez to third.

DETTop 7th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 81% WP

Meadows · singled to right.

DETBottom 7th Inning · 3-0
+12pp→ 92% WP

Rice · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Bellinger out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET00002015311
NYY0000000101

Period scoring

DET won 4 · NYY won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Torres 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Torres 1

5
1

Inn 8

Greene 2

Wells 1

3
0

Inn 9

Keith 2

DET
NYY

Play-by-play · 631 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    DET 11·NYY 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  3. B9

    Wells grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Domínguez out at second.

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  9. B9

    Brenan Hanifee pitches to Austin Wells

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  11. B9

    Chisholm Jr. lined out to second.

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  13. B9

    Brenan Hanifee pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  14. B9

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  15. B9

    Domínguez reached on infield single to first, Bellinger to second, Slater to third.

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  18. B9

    Brenan Hanifee pitches to Jasson Dominguez

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  19. B9

    Domínguez hit for Stanton

    ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  20. B9

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  21. B9

    Rice struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  25. B9

    Brenan Hanifee pitches to Ben Rice

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  26. B9

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  27. B9

    Bellinger singled to right, Slater to second.

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 11·NYY 1

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

11

Runs

1

16

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

27

TB

12

3

HR

1

1

BB

2

8

K

13

17

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.7%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.