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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2PHI
SEA

SEA

68-59

4
6
PHI

PHI

73-53

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
43,757 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

SEA 4 · PHI 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0010003004
PHI102100026

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 24, 25sim 98
    198
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 98
    183
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    191
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    122
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    611
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 94
    75
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 19·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Seattle Mariners, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Eugenio Suarez

Eugenio Suarez

DH

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryson Stott

Bryson Stott

2B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA68-59
4
6
PHI73-53
SEA68-59·PHI73-53
SEA

SEA

68-59

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44111010
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-33110022
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44001002
SPRINT28.688
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
3-44032000
SPRINT25.818
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000003
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-44000001
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000004
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-44120002
SPRINT25.513
D. MooreD. Moore★CF
0-22100011
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-11000000
Team7-34344740415
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. MillerB. Miller★SP
5.0444242
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0100010
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0000000
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0222111
Team8.0766363
PHI

PHI

73-53

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-33111000
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-33123100
SPRINT28.381
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-22010020
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-44000002
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-44000000
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-44000002
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-22211110
SPRINT28.688
Team7-3030676336
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
6.16222120
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
0.1122200
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
0.1000000
D. RobertsonD. RobertsonRP
1.0000020
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000010
Team9.07444150

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • B. Miller
    85 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      24%·95.2 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.0 mph·57% whiff
    • FS
      13%·85.2 mph·43% whiff
    • KC
      9%·84.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.8 mph·33% whiff
  • M. Brash
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      68%·85.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      27%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.7 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      58%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      42%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Speier
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·83.7 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    96 pitches·35% CSW
    • CH
      45%·86.5 mph·48% whiff
    • SI
      32%·95.5 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.3 mph·46% whiff
  • D. Robertson
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FC
      50%·91.7 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      43%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·81.6 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      31%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FS
      50%·99.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      42%·102.2 mph·75% whiff
    • KC
      8%·89.9 mph·— whiff
  • M. Strahm
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      100%·83.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

4

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

Aug 18SEASEA7@PHIPHI12
Aug 19SEASEA4@PHIPHI6today
Aug 20SEASEA2@PHIPHI11

Season series

PHI leads series 2-0

Aug 18SEASEA7@PHIPHI12
Aug 19SEASEA4@PHIPHI6today
Aug 20SEASEA2@PHIPHI11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 7th Inning

SEASEA
E. Suarez

E. Suarez

DH

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

B. Miller

B. Miller

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
B. Stott

B. Stott

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcher12-K game

6.1 IP · 12 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PHI beat SEA 6-4. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the top 7th inning (26pp).

Win probability

PHI vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 40% WP

Arozarena · doubled to center, Crawford scored.

SEATop 7th Inning · 4-4
+26pp→ 46% WP

Suárez doubled to left, Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.

PHIBottom 8th Inning · 4-6
+25pp→ 94% WP

Realmuto · homered to left center (431 feet), Harper scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0010003004
PHI10210002—6

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · PHI won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Schwarber 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
2

Inn 3

Arozarena 1

Harper 1

0
1

Inn 4

Stott 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Rodr 1

0
2

Inn 8

Realmuto 2

0

Inn 9

SEA
PHI

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  2. T9

    Raleigh struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  6. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Cal Raleigh

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  7. T9

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  8. T9

    Arozarena grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

    +3pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  14. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Randy Arozarena

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  15. T9

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  16. T9

    Raley grounded out to first.

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

    +3pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  21. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Luke Raley

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  22. T9

    Duran relieved Robertson

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  23. T9

    Raley hit for Moore

    ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  26. B8

    · ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  27. B8

    Bader grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 4·PHI 6

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

4

Runs

6

7

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

12

TB

16

0

HR

3

4

BB

3

15

K

6

18

LOB

11

Player projections

PHI vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    55.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.7%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.8%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175