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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SEA
STL

STL

72-75

2
4
SEA

SEA

78-68

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
25,495 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

STL 2 · SEA 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910111213R
STL10000000001002
SEA01000000001024

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off St. Louis Cardinals, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Thomas Saggese

Thomas Saggese

LF

1.600OPS

5-4

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Leo Rivas

Leo Rivas

3B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final/13
STL72-75
2
4
SEA78-68
STL72-75·SEA78-68
STL

STL

72-75

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
1-66010002
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44111102
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-66000003
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-55100001
SPRINT26.838
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-55000011
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
4-55041000
SPRINT27.354
P. PagesP. Pages★C
2-55020002
SPRINT25.716
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
0-44000001
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-33000002
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-11000000
V. Scott IIV. Scott IICF
0-11000000
Team8-45452821114
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. McGreevyM. McGreevy★SP
6.0511040
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.2100120
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.1000120
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
2.0210220
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.0121111
Team12.09425111
SEA

SEA

78-68

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-66020001
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-33010031
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-66020003
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-55310012
SPRINT23.81
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-55021000
SPRINT25.310
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000012
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-22001000
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-55000000
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-55000001
L. RivasL. Rivas3B
1-11112100
SPRINT27.560
V. RoblesV. RoblesRF
0-11000001
Team9-43434941511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
4.2511181
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.1100010
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0000030
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
1.0000000
J. CastilloJ. CastilloRP
1.0100010
L. JacksonL. JacksonRP
2.0110010
E. HancockE. HancockSP
2.0000000
Team13.08211141

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

9

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 3-0

Sep 9STLSTL2@SEASEA4
Sep 10STLSTL3@SEASEA5
Sep 11STLSTL2@SEASEA4today

Season series

SEA wins series 3-0

Sep 9STLSTL2@SEASEA4
Sep 10STLSTL3@SEASEA5
Sep 11STLSTL2@SEASEA4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 41pp · Bottom 11th Inning

STLSTL
T. Saggese

T. Saggese

LF

Batter of the game

4-for-5 · 1.600 OPS

M. McGreevy

M. McGreevy

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H

SEASEA
L. Rivas

L. Rivas

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat STL 4-2. Polanco's play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (41pp).

Win probability

SEA vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12I13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 11th Inning · 2-1
+18pp→ 64% WP

Saggese · singled to left, Contreras scored.

SEABottom 11th Inning · 2-2
+41pp→ 79% WP

Polanco · doubled to right, Naylor scored.

SEABottom 13th Inning · 2-4
+29pp→ 100% WP

Rivas · homered to right (361 feet), Naylor scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910111213R
STL10000000001002
SEA01000000001024

Period scoring

STL won 1 · SEA won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Herrera 1

0
1

Inn 2

Canzone 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

1
1

Inn 11

Saggese 1

Polanco 1

0
0

Inn 12

0
2

Inn 13

Rivas 2

STL
SEA

Play-by-play · 773 plays

period
event
player
  1. B13

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  2. B13

    Rivas homered to right (361 feet), Naylor scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

    +29pp

  3. B13

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  4. B13

    Ryan Fernandez pitches to Leo Rivas

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 4

  5. B13

    Walker as designated hitter.

    STL 2·SEA 2

  6. B13

    Bottom of the 13th inning

    STL 2·SEA 2

  7. M13

    Middle of the 13th inning

    STL 2·SEA 2

  8. T13

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  9. T13

    Gorman flied out to center.

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  10. T13

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  11. T13

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  12. T13

    Emerson Hancock pitches to Nolan Gorman

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  13. T13

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  14. T13

    Contreras grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

    +10pp

  15. T13

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  16. T13

    Emerson Hancock pitches to Willson Contreras

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  17. T13

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  18. T13

    Burleson lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

    +12pp

  19. T13

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  20. T13

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  21. T13

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  22. T13

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  23. T13

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  24. T13

    Emerson Hancock pitches to Alec Burleson

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  25. T13

    Walker ran for Herrera

    ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  26. T13

    Top of the 13th inning

    STL 2·SEA 2

  27. End 12

    End of the 12th inning

    STL 2·SEA 2

  28. B12

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

  29. B12

    Naylor flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

    −13pp

  30. B12

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 2·SEA 2

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

2

Runs

4

8

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

12

TB

14

1

HR

1

1

BB

5

14

K

11

34

LOB

27

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

SEA vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.1± 4.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    60.1%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 2, 25sim 97
    35
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    243
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    242
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 96
    234
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 95
    14
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 95
    34
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs