HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3LAA
LAA

LAA

63-72

4
1
HOU

HOU

75-61

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
38,559 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

LAA

league avg

HOU

HOU

.708

OPS

.717

▶

.729

.319

OBP

.319

.318

4.49

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.56

4.62

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.91

1.43

WHIP

1.31

1.44

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 4 · HOU 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0010000034
HOU0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 30·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels went into Houston Astros and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. AbreuHOU−52.8pp
  2. 2L. RengifoLAA+48.8pp
  3. 3L. O'HoppeLAA+38.4pp

LAA · top performer

LAA
Oswald Peraza

Oswald Peraza

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoSS
.2675111103
Y. Moncada3B
.2314010011
M. TroutCF
.2283001021
T. WardLF
.2285000002
J. AdellRF
.2334000003
L. Rengifo3B
.2462110020
L. O'HoppeC
.2233110012
N. Kavadas1B
.1111000011
B. TeodosioLF
.2092000000
- M. LugoLF
.2392110001
- T. d'ArnaudC
.2021000000
- O. Peraza2B
.1581012000
Team334641714

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
K. HendricksSP
6.07110283
R. DetmersSP
1.00001115
J. FerminRP
1.00000211
K. JansenRP
1.00001011
Team9.071125120

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaSS
.3074110000
Y. AlvarezDH
.2164020000
J. Altuve2B
.2753010001
C. CorreaSS
.3074000002
J. SanchezRF
.2533011010
C. Walker1B
.2384000001
Y. DiazC
.2544010000
C. SmithRF
.2403010010
M. DubonSS
.2523000001
Team32171025

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. ArrighettiSP
6.111158100
B. KingRP
0.20000110
S. OkertRP
0.21000215
C. KimbrelRP
0.1000003
B. AbreuRP
0.24332228
E. De Los SantosRP
0.1000014
Team9.0644714160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • K. Hendricks
    83 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      43%·87.3 mph·5% whiff
    • CH
      27%·80.5 mph·23% whiff
    • CU
      20%·73.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·86.9 mph·17% whiff
  • R. Detmers
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      53%·87.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·73.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Fermin
    11 pitches·64% CSW
    • SL
      91%·89.7 mph·83% whiff
    • FF
      9%·96.6 mph·— whiff
  • K. Jansen
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      91%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·83.5 mph·0% whiff

HOU

  • S. Arrighetti
    100 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      31%·77.2 mph·46% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.6 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      19%·80.1 mph·70% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Abreu
    28 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      61%·98.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      39%·87.1 mph·20% whiff
  • S. Okert
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      53%·82.0 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      47%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. King
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      90%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.5 mph·— whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • KC
      67%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·92.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 4-3

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1today
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8

Season series

HOU leads series 5-3

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Jun 21HOUHOU3@LAALAA2
Jun 22HOUHOU1@LAALAA9
Jun 22HOUHOU8@LAALAA7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1today
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8
Sep 27HOUHOU3@LAALAA4
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA1
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 29pp · Top 9th Inning

LAALAA
O. Peraza

O. Peraza

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 7 H

HOUHOU
Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 5 BB

How it ended

LAA beat HOU 4-1. Peraza's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 47% WP

Neto · homered to left (403 feet).

HOUBottom 3rd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 63% WP

Sánchez reached on infield single to second, Peña scored, Altuve to second.

LAATop 9th Inning · 3-1
+29pp→ 95% WP

Peraza · singled to right, O'Hoppe scored and Rengifo scored, Peraza to second, Lugo to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0010000034
HOU0010000001

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · HOU won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
1

Inn 3

Neto 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

3
0

Inn 9

Peraza 2

LAA
HOU

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  3. B9

    Smith flied out to center.

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  5. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Cam Smith

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  6. B9

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  7. B9

    Diaz fouled out to first.

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

    −3pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  10. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Yainer Diaz

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  11. B9

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  12. B9

    Walker flied out to left.

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

    −4pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  15. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Christian Walker

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  16. B9

    ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  17. B9

    Sánchez walked.

    ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

    +4pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  24. B9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Jesus Sanchez

    ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  25. B9

    Jansen relieved Fermin

    ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

  29. T9

    Ward struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

    +0.9pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 4·HOU 1

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

4

Runs

1

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

9

TB

8

1

HR

0

7

BB

2

14

K

5

14

LOB

19

Player projections

HOU vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    7.0± 4.0low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    5.6± 1.9medium
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.3± 2.5low

Hits

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Jo AdellLAA
    1.2± 1.6high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.6± 2.6high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 1.5high
  • Jo AdellLAA
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    1.0± 2.1high
  • Denzer GuzmanLAA
    1.0± 1.9low
  • Trey ManciniLAA
    1.0± 1.1low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.2± 3.8low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.6± 2.6low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    61.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.4%

    P(HOU win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.4%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.