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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6LAD
LAD

LAD

74-57

8
2
SD

SD

74-57

Petco Park · San Diego, California
43,827 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 8 · SD 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD1000015018
SD0020000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 98
    124
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 98
    183
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    122
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    611
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 94
    75
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 94
    114
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

2.600OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Elias Diaz

Elias Diaz

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD74-57
8
2
SD74-57
LAD74-57·SD74-57
LAD

LAD

74-57

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44211112
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
3-44130010
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44223210
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44001002
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-44000001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT28.175
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-22100011
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-44000000
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-44113101
SPRINT27.867
A. CallA. CallLF
1-11010000
Team9-3535898449
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
6.0422261
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
0.2100010
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.1000010
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000000
K. YatesK. YatesRP
1.0000000
Team9.0522281
SD

SD

74-57

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-33000010
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44000000
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT24.32
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-44000000
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-33000003
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
2-44020001
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-33000001
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-22110011
SPRINT28.891
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
1-33112101
W. WagnerW. Wagner3B
0-11000000
Team5-3131252128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. PivettaN. Pivetta★SP
6.0222371
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
0.2344111
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.1211011
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
1.0211001
Team9.0988494

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • Y. Yamamoto
    92 pitches·34% CSW
    • FS
      29%·92.1 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.1 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      17%·91.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      15%·78.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      5%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Yates
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      62%·92.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      38%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      58%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·92.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Scott
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    3 pitches·100% CSW
    • ST
      67%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      33%·90.1 mph·100% whiff

SD

  • N. Pivetta
    93 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.8 mph·28% whiff
    • CU
      24%·79.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      3%·92.6 mph·— whiff
  • W. Peralta
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      46%·88.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      42%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      52%·97.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      20%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Matsui
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FS
      30%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

5

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 10LADLAD8@SDSD7
Jun 11LADLAD1@SDSD11
Jun 11LADLAD5@SDSD2
Aug 23LADLAD1@SDSD2
Aug 24LADLAD1@SDSD5
Aug 24LADLAD8@SDSD2today

Season series

LAD win series 9-4

Jun 10LADLAD8@SDSD7
Jun 11LADLAD1@SDSD11
Jun 11LADLAD5@SDSD2
Jun 17SDSD3@LADLAD6
Jun 18SDSD6@LADLAD8
Jun 19SDSD3@LADLAD4
Jun 20SDSD5@LADLAD3
Aug 16SDSD2@LADLAD3
Aug 17SDSD0@LADLAD6
Aug 17SDSD4@LADLAD5
Aug 23LADLAD1@SDSD2
Aug 24LADLAD1@SDSD5
Aug 24LADLAD8@SDSD2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 36pp · Top 7th Inning

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.600 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

SDSD
E. Diaz

E. Diaz

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

N. Pivetta

N. Pivetta

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SD 8-2. Rushing's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+26pp→ 66% WP

Díaz homered to left center (413 feet), Cronenworth scored.

LADTop 6th Inning · 2-2
+18pp→ 45% WP

Freeman · homered to center (415 feet).

LADTop 7th Inning · 5-2
+36pp→ 89% WP

Rushing · homered to right center (387 feet), Pages scored and Conforto scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD1000015018
SD0020000002

Period scoring

LAD won 4 · SD won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Freeman 1

5
0

Inn 7

Rushing 3

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Ohtani 1

LAD
SD

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 8·SD 2

  2. B9

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  3. B9

    Sheets flied out to right.

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  8. B9

    Kirby Yates pitches to Gavin Sheets

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  9. B9

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  10. B9

    Wagner grounded out to third.

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  13. B9

    Kirby Yates pitches to Will Wagner

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  14. B9

    Wagner hit for Bogaerts

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  15. B9

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  16. B9

    O'Hearn grounded out to first.

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  24. B9

    Kirby Yates pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  25. B9

    Yates relieved Scott

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

  26. B9

    Pages in right field.

    LAD 8·SD 2

  27. B9

    Dean in center field.

    LAD 8·SD 2

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    LAD 8·SD 2

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    LAD 8·SD 2

  30. T9

    ·

    LAD 8·SD 2

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

SD

Home

8

Runs

2

9

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

22

TB

10

4

HR

1

4

BB

2

9

K

8

11

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.4%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    56.8%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.6%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.