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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9PHI
SEA

SEA

68-60

2
11
PHI

PHI

74-53

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
38,331 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

SEA 2 · PHI 11 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA1000001002
PHI1101005311

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    198
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    612
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    611
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    124
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 95
    75
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    183
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 20·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Seattle Mariners, 11–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA68-60
2
11
PHI74-53
SEA68-60·PHI74-53
SEA

SEA

68-60

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000002
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-44000003
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
3-44131100
SPRINT28.688
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44111103
SPRINT25.818
M. GarverM. Garver★C
1-44010002
SPRINT24.53
D. SolanoD. Solano★1B
0-22000002
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-22000012
D. MooreD. Moore★CF
0-22000001
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33000001
J. NaylorJ. Naylor1B
0-22000000
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-11000001
Team5-32322522117
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
4.01033221
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
0.2200010
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
0.2100100
M. BrashM. BrashRP
0.2000010
T. SaucedoT. SaucedoRP
0.1454100
S. LaoS. LaoRP
1.2333111
Team8.0201110552
PHI

PHI

74-53

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
5-66352000
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
3-55235100
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-33011030
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44010010
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-55010003
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44110011
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
2-44220001
SPRINT27.662
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
3-55231100
B. StottB. Stott★2B
3-55132000
SPRINT28.688
Team20-4141112011255
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
6.03110121
D. RobertsonD. RobertsonRP
0.2111111
T. BanksT. BanksRP
0.1000010
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
1.0000010
J. RossJ. RossRP
1.0100020
Team9.05221172

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Castillo
    88 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      34%·94.0 mph·12% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·84.7 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      19%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Lao
    39 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      49%·87.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.6 mph·— whiff
  • T. Saucedo
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      55%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      33%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      28%·89.6 mph·— whiff
    • SV
      28%·81.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      11%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      65%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Brash
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      80%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.1 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    89 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      45%·86.0 mph·55% whiff
    • FF
      36%·96.2 mph·35% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      6%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Robertson
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      44%·91.4 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      38%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FC
      43%·92.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      43%·98.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      14%·84.0 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Ross
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·82.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·90.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Banks
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • ST
      100%·84.1 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

20

2

Runs

11

2

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

Aug 18SEASEA7@PHIPHI12
Aug 19SEASEA4@PHIPHI6
Aug 20SEASEA2@PHIPHI11today

Season series

PHI wins series 3-0

Aug 18SEASEA7@PHIPHI12
Aug 19SEASEA4@PHIPHI6
Aug 20SEASEA2@PHIPHI11today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 4th Inning

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 10 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 12 K · 1 ER · 3 H

How it ended

PHI beat SEA 11-2.

Win probability

PHI vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 55% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to left (363 feet).

SEATop 4th Inning · 1-2
+15pp→ 41% WP

Rodr · íguez singled to center.

SEATop 7th Inning · 2-3
+12pp→ 29% WP

Suárez homered to left (382 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA1000001002
PHI11010053—11

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · PHI won 4

1
1

Inn 1

Rodr 1

Schwarber 1

0
1

Inn 2

Stott 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Kepler 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
5

Inn 7

Schwarber 2

0
3

Inn 8

Schwarber 2

0

Inn 9

SEA
PHI

Play-by-play · 628 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  2. T9

    Naylor grounded out to second.

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  6. T9

    Joe Ross pitches to Josh Naylor

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  7. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  8. T9

    Garver struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  13. T9

    Joe Ross pitches to Mitch Garver

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  14. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  15. T9

    Suárez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  19. T9

    Joe Ross pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    · ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  20. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  21. T9

    Rodríguez doubled to left.

    ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  24. T9

    Joe Ross pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  25. T9

    Ross relieved Alvarado

    ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  26. T9

    Marchán catching.

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  29. B8

    ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

  30. B8

    Harper flied out to left.

    ·

    SEA 2·PHI 11

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

2

Runs

11

5

Hits

20

2

Errors

1

12

TB

32

2

HR

2

1

BB

5

17

K

5

9

LOB

28

Player projections

PHI vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    56.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.