• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+10DET
DET

DET

83-62

12
2
NYY

NYY

80-64

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
35,653 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 12 · NYY 2 (by 10)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET00002091012
NYY1001000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    122
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 1, 25sim 95
    175
    19(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    611
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 93
    114
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 93
    710
    6(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 92
    75
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 9·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into New York Yankees and beat them, 12–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Parker Meadows

Parker Meadows

CF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET83-62
12
2
NYY80-64
DET83-62·NYY80-64
DET

DET

83-62

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-44101002
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-33111020
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-55112001
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-55121001
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-22200030
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44101011
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
3-55233100
SPRINT28.381
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-44111010
SPRINT27.765
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
1-55111003
Team9-373712911178
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
6.0422082
C. PaddackC. PaddackSP
3.0000040
Team9.04220122
NYY

NYY

80-64

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-33111101
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44111100
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44000001
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-33000002
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT28.175
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-33010000
SPRINT25.18
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000002
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-33000003
A. SlaterA. SlaterRF
0-11000001
Team4-31312422012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
6.0222151
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0100100
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
2.0210130
Team9.091211781

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • C. Mize
    88 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      34%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      33%·88.9 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      18%·90.5 mph·43% whiff
    • SV
      10%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Paddack
    35 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      51%·94.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      20%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.5 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • W. Warren
    91 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.5 mph·9% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      16%·88.2 mph·63% whiff
    • CU
      12%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    36 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      36%·91.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      25%·80.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      55%·80.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Hill
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      70%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·74.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      13%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·82.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

4

12

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Sep 9DETDET12@NYYNYY2today
Sep 10DETDET11@NYYNYY1
Sep 11DETDET3@NYYNYY9

Season series

DET leads series 3-1

Apr 7NYYNYY2@DETDET6
Apr 8NYYNYY0@DETDET5
Apr 9NYYNYY4@DETDET3
Sep 9DETDET12@NYYNYY2today
Sep 10DETDET11@NYYNYY1
Sep 11DETDET3@NYYNYY9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 5th Inning

DETDET
P. Meadows

P. Meadows

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat NYY 12-2. DET outscored the other side 9-0 in the 7th inning.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 5th Inning · 2-2
+21pp→ 42% WP

Meadows · homered to right center (391 feet), Torkelson scored.

DETTop 7th Inning · 2-2
+10pp→ 56% WP

Greene · hit a ground rule double.

DETTop 7th Inning · 3-2
+13pp→ 81% WP

Meadows · singled to right, Greene scored, Pérez to second, Torkelson to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET00002091012
NYY1001000002

Period scoring

DET won 3 · NYY won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Judge 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Bellinger 1

2
0

Inn 5

Meadows 2

0
0

Inn 6

9
0

Inn 7

Carpenter 3

1
0

Inn 8

Greene 1

0
0

Inn 9

DET
NYY

Play-by-play · 584 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    DET 12·NYY 2

  2. B9

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  3. B9

    Rice flied out to left.

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  5. B9

    Chris Paddack pitches to Ben Rice

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  6. B9

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  7. B9

    Bellinger grounded out to third.

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  10. B9

    Chris Paddack pitches to Cody Bellinger

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  11. B9

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  12. B9

    Slater struck out looking.

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  16. B9

    Chris Paddack pitches to Austin Slater

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  17. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    DET 12·NYY 2

  18. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    DET 12·NYY 2

  19. T9

    · ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  20. T9

    Sweeney struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  26. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Trey Sweeney

    · ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  27. T9

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  28. T9

    Dingler singled to center.

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 12·NYY 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

12

Runs

2

9

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

16

TB

10

1

HR

2

7

BB

0

8

K

12

11

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.5%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    58.0%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.3%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.6%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.