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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6CLE
CLE

CLE

70-70

7
1
TB

TB

71-70

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
8,836 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 7 · TB 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0500020007
TB0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Austin Hedges

Austin Hedges

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Josh Lowe

Josh Lowe

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE70-70
7
1
TB71-70
CLE70-70·TB71-70
CLE

CLE

70-70

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-44222010
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-55010001
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
3-55132002
SPRINT27.251
D. FryD. Fry★RF
1-33011001
SPRINT25.716
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
2-55020001
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-55110002
J. NoelJ. Noel★RF
0-55000001
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33100002
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
1-33211110
SPRINT24.43
G. ValeraG. ValeraLF
1-22011000
SPRINT25.513
Team12-404071271210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
7.0711331
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
1.0000110
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0000010
Team9.0711451
TB

TB

71-70

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.838
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-44020000
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000002
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44111100
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
2-33020010
SPRINT27.251
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT2993
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-22000020
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-44000003
BB. Seymour★1B
0-22000000
E. PereiraE. PereiraRF
0-11000010
Team7-3232171145
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. JaxG. Jax★RP
1.0200010
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
4.0551250
BB. Van BelleRP
2.0422031
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0100010
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0000000
Team9.012732101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • G. Williams
    95 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.5 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      24%·81.0 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      23%·85.3 mph·80% whiff
    • FC
      12%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      29%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      42%·85.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      37%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·87.2 mph·100% whiff

TB

  • I. Seymour
    89 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      37%·91.2 mph·12% whiff
    • FC
      25%·88.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      22%·82.7 mph·45% whiff
    • SI
      8%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·80.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      3%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Van Belle
    37 pitches·41% CSW
    • CH
      49%·83.5 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      19%·80.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      14%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      11%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      28%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      22%·88.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      88%·99.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      12%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      56%·78.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·90.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      11%·89.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

7

7

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 3-1

Sep 4CLECLE2@TBTB4
Sep 5CLECLE7@TBTB1today
Sep 6CLECLE3@TBTB2
Sep 7CLECLE2@TBTB1

Season series

CLE leads series 3-2

Aug 25TBTB9@CLECLE0
Aug 26TBTB0@CLECLE3
Aug 27TBTB3@CLECLE4
Sep 4CLECLE2@TBTB4
Sep 5CLECLE7@TBTB1today
Sep 6CLECLE3@TBTB2
Sep 7CLECLE2@TBTB1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 2nd Inning

CLECLE
A. Hedges

A. Hedges

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

TBTB
J. Lowe

J. Lowe

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

I. Seymour

I. Seymour

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat TB 7-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 72% WP

Kwan · singled to center, Arias scored and Rocchio scored, Hedges to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0500020007
TB0000010001

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · TB won 0

0
0

Inn 1

5
0

Inn 2

Kwan 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
1

Inn 6

Hedges 1

Caminero 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CLE
TB

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 7·TB 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  3. B9

    Pereira grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  7. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Everson Pereira

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  8. B9

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  9. B9

    Williams struck out looking.

    · ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  15. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Carson Williams

    · ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  16. B9

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  17. B9

    Feduccia flied out to left.

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 11 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball 3

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  29. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Hunter Feduccia

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

  30. B9

    Smith relieved Herrin

    ·

    CLE 7·TB 1

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

TB

Home

7

Runs

1

12

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

16

TB

12

1

HR

1

2

BB

4

10

K

5

22

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993

Player projections

TB vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.7%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    57.6%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.2%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.1%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 3, 25sim 97
    34
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 97
    33
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    242
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    243
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 96
    265
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    16
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs