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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6DET
CHW

CHW

54-89

0
6
DET

DET

82-61

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
32,115 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

CHW 0 · DET 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
DET100500006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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MLB·Sat, Sep 6·Final/SeriesDET wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Chicago White Sox, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Chase Meidroth

Chase Meidroth

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Jahmai Jones

Jahmai Jones

DH

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW54-89
0
6
DET82-61
CHW54-89·DET82-61
CHW

CHW

54-89

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
2-33020011
SPRINT2744
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-33000001
SPRINT24.12
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-33000000
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-33000001
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
0-33000000
B. RamosB. Ramos★3B
1-33010000
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
0-33000003
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
0-33000001
D. FletcherD. Fletcher★RF
0-33000000
K. LeeK. LeeC
0-11000000
Team3-2828030017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. PerezM. Perez★SP
4.0566302
W. GonzálezW. GonzálezRP
2.0000050
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
1.0100020
D. AltavillaD. AltavillaRP
1.0000020
Team8.0666392
DET

DET

82-61

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
1-22211110
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-33123110
SPRINT25.18
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.969
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000002
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44110002
SPRINT2744
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
0-33100010
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44000002
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33111001
SPRINT26.941
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-22001001
C. KeithC. Keith3B
0-11000001
Team6-3030666239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
7.0200160
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.0000010
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.0100000
Team9.0300170

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • M. Perez
    89 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      37%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      28%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·76.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      3%·90.2 mph·50% whiff
  • W. González
    29 pitches·38% CSW
    • SV
      45%·79.2 mph·80% whiff
    • FF
      41%·94.2 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Wilson
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      65%·81.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      35%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Altavilla
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      64%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·90.5 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • T. Skubal
    90 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      24%·97.1 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      23%·88.3 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      14%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Montero
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FS
      54%·86.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      46%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      100%·86.3 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

6

0

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 4-2

Apr 4CHWCHW4@DETDET7
Apr 5CHWCHW2@DETDET7
Apr 6CHWCHW3@DETDET4
Sep 5CHWCHW7@DETDET5
Sep 6CHWCHW0@DETDET6today
Sep 7CHWCHW6@DETDET4

Season series

DET leads series 8-4

Apr 4CHWCHW4@DETDET7
Apr 5CHWCHW2@DETDET7
Apr 6CHWCHW3@DETDET4
Jun 2DETDET13@CHWCHW1
Jun 3DETDET1@CHWCHW8
Jun 4DETDET5@CHWCHW4
Jun 5DETDET2@CHWCHW3
Aug 11DETDET2@CHWCHW1
Aug 12DETDET6@CHWCHW9
Aug 13DETDET1@CHWCHW0
Sep 5CHWCHW7@DETDET5
Sep 6CHWCHW0@DETDET6today
Sep 7CHWCHW6@DETDET4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 7pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHWCHW
C. Meidroth

C. Meidroth

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

W. González

W. González

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER

DETDET
J. Jones

J. Jones

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat CHW 6-0.

Win probability

DET vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 84% WP

Jones · homered to left (374 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
DET10050000—6

Period scoring

CHW won 0 · DET won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Jones 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
5

Inn 4

Torres 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHW
DET

Play-by-play · 492 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  2. T9

    Lee grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Meidroth out at second.

    · ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  8. T9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Korey Lee

    · ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  9. T9

    Lee hit for Quero

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  10. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  11. T9

    Meidroth singled to right.

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  15. T9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Chase Meidroth

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  16. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  17. T9

    Fletcher grounded out to third.

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  23. T9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Dominic Fletcher

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  24. T9

    R. Montero relieved Kahnle

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 0·DET 6

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 0·DET 6

  27. B8

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  28. B8

    Dingler struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 0·DET 6

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

DET

Home

0

Runs

6

3

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

4

TB

13

0

HR

2

1

BB

3

7

K

9

4

LOB

11

Player projections

DET vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Tristan PetersCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    61.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.2%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.3%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 14, 25sim 98
    42
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 96
    34
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    35
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    41
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    154
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 94
    242
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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