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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CLE
CHW

CHW

57-92

1
3
CLE

CLE

77-71

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
28,463 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CHW 1 · CLE 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW1000000001
CLE020000013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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MLB·Sat, Sep 13·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 6-0

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Chicago White Sox, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Michael A. Taylor

Michael A. Taylor

RF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Jhonkensy Noel

Jhonkensy Noel

RF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW57-92
1
3
CLE77-71
CHW57-92·CLE77-71
CHW

CHW

57-92

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT2744
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.838
E. QueroE. Quero★C
2-44020000
SPRINT24.12
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44011002
SPRINT26.941
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-44000001
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44000001
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-44000002
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
2-22020010
W. RobertsonW. Robertson★LF
1-33010001
C. MontgomeryC. MontgomerySS
0-11000000
Team8-3333181019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MartinD. Martin★SP
5.0522131
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
2.0000020
F. EllardF. EllardRP
1.0111011
Team8.0633162
CLE

CLE

77-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.530
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-33000001
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000001
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.411
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
0-22000011
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-33010000
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
1-22110000
SPRINT27.354
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
1-22112100
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000000
J. NoelJ. NoelRF
1-11111100
A. MartinezA. MartinezLF
0-11000000
D. FryD. FryRF
0-11000001
Team6-3030363216
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. MessickP. Messick★SP
6.0711140
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.0100020
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0000010
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0000020
Team9.0811190

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • D. Martin
    85 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.7 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      28%·90.6 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      11%·79.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      61%·90.7 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      26%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      4%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • F. Ellard
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      42%·93.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.8 mph·67% whiff

CLE

  • P. Messick
    93 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      39%·92.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.3 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      18%·91.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Smith
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·96.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      29%·85.3 mph·33% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.9 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      83%·95.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·80.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

1

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 6-0

Apr 8CHWCHW0@CLECLE1
Apr 9CHWCHW2@CLECLE3
Apr 10CHWCHW1@CLECLE6
Sep 12CHWCHW0@CLECLE4
Sep 13CHWCHW1@CLECLE3today
Sep 14CHWCHW2@CLECLE3

Season series

CLE leads series 10-2

Apr 8CHWCHW0@CLECLE1
Apr 9CHWCHW2@CLECLE3
Apr 10CHWCHW1@CLECLE6
Jul 10CLECLE0@CHWCHW0
Jul 11CLECLE4@CHWCHW2
Jul 12CLECLE4@CHWCHW5
Jul 12CLECLE6@CHWCHW2
Jul 13CLECLE6@CHWCHW5
Aug 8CLECLE9@CHWCHW5
Aug 9CLECLE3@CHWCHW1
Aug 10CLECLE4@CHWCHW6
Sep 12CHWCHW0@CLECLE4
Sep 13CHWCHW1@CLECLE3today
Sep 14CHWCHW2@CLECLE3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

CHWCHW
M. Taylor

M. Taylor

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
J. Noel

J. Noel

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CLE beat CHW 3-1. Kayfus's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 59% WP

Sosa · singled to left, Meidroth scored, Quero to second.

CLEBottom 2nd Inning · 1-2
+19pp→ 70% WP

Kayfus · homered to right (358 feet), Naylor scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW1000000001
CLE02000001—3

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

1

Runs

3

8

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

9

TB

12

0

HR

2

1

BB

1

9

K

6

10

LOB

8

Win probability

CLE vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · CLE won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Sosa 1

0
2

Inn 2

Kayfus 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Noel 1

0

Inn 9

CHW
CLE

Play-by-play · 492 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  2. T9

    Benintendi flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

    +0.7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  10. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  11. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  12. T9

    Vargas struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

    +2pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  19. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  20. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  21. T9

    Tauchman struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

    +3pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  26. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Mike Tauchman

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  27. T9

    Smith relieved Gaddis

    ·

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  28. T9

    Noel in right field.

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 1·CLE 3

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 1·CLE 3

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

CLE vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    60.4%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.0%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.4%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 12, 25sim 98
    40
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 97
    42
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    34
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 95
    40
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 95
    34
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
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