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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
CHW

CHW

57-93

2
3
CLE

CLE

78-71

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
22,320 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CHW 2 · CLE 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0001100002
CLE000200103

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 14·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 6-0

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Chicago White Sox, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Chase Meidroth

Chase Meidroth

2B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Bo Naylor

Bo Naylor

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW57-93
2
3
CLE78-71
CHW57-93·CLE78-71
CHW

CHW

57-93

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-44000000
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-44010002
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-33000013
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-44021001
SPRINT28.381
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-44000001
W. RobertsonW. Robertson★LF
0-33000001
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-33111101
SPRINT2744
D. FletcherD. Fletcher★RF
0-33000001
Team5-32322521111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. GomezY. Gomez★RP
5.0222140
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.2411011
F. EllardF. EllardRP
0.1000100
W. GonzálezW. GonzálezRP
1.0000210
Team8.0633461
CLE

CLE

78-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-33100010
SPRINT26.530
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
0-22000001
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-33110012
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-44000000
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
2-33123110
SPRINT27.354
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-44000001
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.457
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
1-33010000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-22000010
A. MartinezA. MartinezLF
1-22010001
SPRINT27.765
Team6-2929363146
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
5.2322141
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
0.1000010
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.0000030
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0000010
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0200020
Team9.05221111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • Y. Gomez
    77 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.8 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      19%·91.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      12%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·85.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      36%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      28%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • W. González
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      58%·94.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      21%·78.2 mph·— whiff
  • F. Ellard
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      82%·95.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.4 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    93 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.9 mph·36% whiff
    • CU
      31%·76.3 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·89.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      1%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      19%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Festa
    14 pitches·64% CSW
    • ST
      43%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      29%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·90.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Smith
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      58%·96.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      33%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      8%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • SL
      60%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      20%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

6

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 6-0

Apr 8CHWCHW0@CLECLE1
Apr 9CHWCHW2@CLECLE3
Apr 10CHWCHW1@CLECLE6
Sep 12CHWCHW0@CLECLE4
Sep 13CHWCHW1@CLECLE3
Sep 14CHWCHW2@CLECLE3today

Season series

CLE wins series 11-2

Apr 8CHWCHW0@CLECLE1
Apr 9CHWCHW2@CLECLE3
Apr 10CHWCHW1@CLECLE6
Jul 10CLECLE0@CHWCHW0
Jul 11CLECLE4@CHWCHW2
Jul 12CLECLE4@CHWCHW5
Jul 12CLECLE6@CHWCHW2
Jul 13CLECLE6@CHWCHW5
Aug 8CLECLE9@CHWCHW5
Aug 9CLECLE3@CHWCHW1
Aug 10CLECLE4@CHWCHW6
Sep 12CHWCHW0@CLECLE4
Sep 13CHWCHW1@CLECLE3
Sep 14CHWCHW2@CLECLE3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CHWCHW
C. Meidroth

C. Meidroth

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

Y. Gomez

Y. Gomez

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
B. Naylor

B. Naylor

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CLE beat CHW 3-2. Naylor's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Win probability

CLE vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 54% WP

Vargas · doubled to center, Sosa scored.

CLEBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+27pp→ 75% WP

Naylor · doubled to center, Ramírez scored and Kwan scored.

CLEBottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+22pp→ 84% WP

Naylor · homered to right center (375 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0001100002
CLE00020010—3

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · CLE won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
2

Inn 4

Vargas 1

Naylor 2

1
0

Inn 5

Meidroth 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Naylor 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHW
CLE

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  2. T9

    Benintendi grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

    +13pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  4. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  5. T9

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  6. T9

    Vargas singled to right, Sosa to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

    −7pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  8. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Miguel Vargas

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  9. T9

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  10. T9

    Montgomery struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

    +10pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  16. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Colson Montgomery

    · ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  17. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  18. T9

    Sosa singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

    −9pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  20. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  21. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  22. T9

    Teel struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

    +4pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  27. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Kyle Teel

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  28. T9

    Smith relieved Gaddis

    ·

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  29. T9

    Kayfus at first base.

    CHW 2·CLE 3

  30. T9

    Noel in right field.

    CHW 2·CLE 3

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

9

TB

11

1

HR

1

1

BB

4

11

K

6

9

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 11 players in cohort
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

CLE vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    61.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.4%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 6, 25sim 98
    40
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 97
    41
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 96
    34
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    152
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 95
    40
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    154
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs