HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2ATL
ATL

ATL

47-63

4
2
CIN

CIN

58-54

Bristol Motor Speedway · Bristol, Tennessee
91,032 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

ATL

league avg

CIN

CIN

.744

OPS

◀

.717

.705

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.312

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.19

3.29

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.68

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 4 · CIN 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0300001004
CIN1100000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 2·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1O. AlbiesATL+38.8pp
  2. 2E. WhiteATL+38.2pp
  3. 3H. WaldrepATL+23.8pp

ATL · top performer

ATL
Eli White

Eli White

CF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarLF
.2325020002
M. Olson1B
.2604000001
A. Riley3B
.2601000001
D. BaldwinC
.2824020001
S. MurphyC
.2284000001
M. Harris IICF
.2384120001
O. Albies2B
.2284110001
E. WhiteCF
.2544224201
N. AllenSS
.2273010011
- L. WilliamsSS
.1203000001
Team3641042111

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. CoxRP
0.13110117
H. WaldrepSP
5.23112475
P. JohnsonRP
0.21000013
D. LeeRP
1.01000116
T. KinleyRP
0.10002016
R. IglesiasRP
1.02000114
Team9.0102247151

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlCF
.2714020011
M. McLain2B
.2254121001
E. De La CruzSS
.2825010001
A. HaysLF
.2735011001
M. AndujarDH
.2952000001
N. MarteRF
.2784010001
S. SteerLF
.2383000010
T. StephensonC
.2382100020
K. Hayes3B
.2364020000
- G. LuxLF
.2741010000
- S. Espinal3B
.2521000001
- J. FraleyRF
.2451000000
Team362102047

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. BurnsSP
1.00000218
B. SuterRP
2.24330249
L. MeyRP
1.12000218
S. MollRP
1.01000115
S. BarlowRP
1.02110117
L. RichardsonRP
2.01001330
Team9.01044111147

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • H. Waldrep
    51 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      25%·95.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      24%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      22%·86.9 mph·83% whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Cox
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      41%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      41%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      12%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·82.3 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lee
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      44%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      69%·88.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·82.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      57%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      21%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      69%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.8 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • L. Richardson
    30 pitches·30% CSW
    • CH
      40%·88.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Suter
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      36%·88.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      32%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·78.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Burns
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      67%·99.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      33%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      53%·81.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Moll
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • SI
      33%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      27%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      7%·91.7 mph·— whiff
  • L. Mey
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      58%·99.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      42%·87.5 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

10

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Jul 31ATLATL12@CINCIN11
Aug 1ATLATL2@CINCIN3
Aug 2ATLATL4@CINCIN2today

Season series

ATL wins series 5-2

May 5CINCIN0@ATLATL4
May 6CINCIN1@ATLATL2
May 7CINCIN4@ATLATL3
May 8CINCIN4@ATLATL5
Jul 31ATLATL12@CINCIN11
Aug 1ATLATL2@CINCIN3
Aug 2ATLATL4@CINCIN2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 2nd Inning

ATLATL
E. White

E. White

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

H. Waldrep

H. Waldrep

SP

Top reliever

5.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
G. Lux

G. Lux

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Suter

B. Suter

RP

Top reliever

2.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 4 H

How it ended

ATL beat CIN 4-2. White's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 2nd Inning · 3-1
+28pp→ 67% WP

White · homered to left (411 feet), Harris II scored and Albies scored.

ATLTop 7th Inning · 4-2
+13pp→ 82% WP

White · homered to left center (413 feet).

CINBottom 9th Inning · 4-2
+15pp→ 35% WP

McLain · singled to right, Friedl to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0300001004
CIN1100000002

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · CIN won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Hays 1

3
1

Inn 2

White 3

McLain 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

White 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ATL
CIN

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  3. B9

    Fraley popped out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

    −9pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  7. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jake Fraley

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  8. B9

    Fraley hit for Espinal

    ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  9. B9

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  10. B9

    Hays fouled out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

    −12pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  14. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Austin Hays

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  15. B9

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  16. B9

    De La Cruz struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

    −14pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  21. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  22. B9

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  23. B9

    McLain singled to right, Friedl to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

    +15pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  26. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Matt McLain

    · ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  27. B9

    ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  28. B9

    Friedl singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

    +11pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 4·CIN 2

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

4

Runs

2

10

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

19

TB

10

2

HR

0

1

BB

4

11

K

7

13

LOB

24

Player projections

CIN vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.4± 2.1low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.9± 3.1low
  • Bryce ElderATL
    4.6± 3.0medium

Hits

  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Mauricio DubonATL
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Matt OlsonATL
    2.1± 2.4high
  • Mauricio DubonATL
    1.9± 2.0high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.8± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Mauricio DubonATL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.6± 1.0high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.2± 2.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.1± 1.8low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.5%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    60.9%

    P(CIN win)

    44%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    fallback · inputs missing

    60.9%

    P(CIN win)

    11%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.5%

    P(CIN win)

    45%

    weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.