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  • WNBA6:17 - 2nd
    SEA 24@TOR 27
    +5.0pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4BAL
BAL

BAL

63-76

6
2
SD

SD

76-63

Petco Park · San Diego, California
42,536 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 6 · SD 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL1020200106
SD0020000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 2·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jeremiah Jackson

Jeremiah Jackson

2B

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Freddy Fermin

Freddy Fermin

C

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL63-76
6
2
SD76-63
BAL63-76·SD76-63
BAL

BAL

63-76

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
2-55020002
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44112110
SPRINT26.530
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-33100010
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
2-55220003
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
2-44120000
SPRINT28.175
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000013
E. RiveraE. Rivera★3B
2-55024001
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-33100011
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33010011
Team10-363661061511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WellsT. Wells★RP
5.0522041
S. DubinS. DubinRP
1.0100000
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
0.1000300
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.2000010
A. SuarezA. SuarezRP
2.0000010
Team9.0622361
SD

SD

76-63

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-33000011
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44112101
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT24.32
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-44000001
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT2872
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44000001
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-22000010
M. McCoyM. McCoy★2B
0-22000001
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
2-22120000
SPRINT26.838
W. WagnerW. Wagner3B
0-11000000
E. DiazE. DiazC
0-11000000
R. O'HearnR. O'HearnRF
0-11000010
Team6-3232262136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. DarvishY. Darvish★SP
4.0643261
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
0.2110010
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.1200120
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
1.0000010
A. JacobA. JacobRP
2.0111210
Team9.010645111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • S. Dubin
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • CH
      38%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·88.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·83.6 mph·0% whiff

SD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Sep 1BALBAL4@SDSD3
Sep 3BALBAL6@SDSD2today
Sep 3BALBAL7@SDSD5

Season series

BAL leads series 2-0

Sep 1BALBAL4@SDSD3
Sep 3BALBAL6@SDSD2today
Sep 3BALBAL7@SDSD5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 5th Inning

BALBAL
J. Jackson

J. Jackson

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

T. Wells

T. Wells

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H

SDSD
F. Fermin

F. Fermin

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

Y. Darvish

Y. Darvish

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat SD 6-2. Rivera's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 3rd Inning · 3-0
+21pp→ 75% WP

McCoy · struck out swinging.

SDBottom 3rd Inning · 3-2
+21pp→ 47% WP

Arraez · homered to right center (393 feet), Fermin scored.

BALTop 5th Inning · 5-2
+21pp→ 80% WP

Rivera · singled to center, Henderson scored and Mountcastle scored, Cowser to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL1020200106
SD0020000002

Period scoring

BAL won 3 · SD won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Jackson 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
2

Inn 3

Rivera 2

Arraez 2

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Rivera 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Jackson 1

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
SD

Play-by-play · 616 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 6·SD 2

  2. B9

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  3. B9

    O'Hearn flied out to right.

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  8. B9

    Albert Suarez pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  9. B9

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  10. B9

    Díaz grounded into double play, third to second to first, Cronenworth out at second.

    · ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

    −4pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  13. B9

    Albert Suarez pitches to Elias Diaz

    · ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  14. B9

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  15. B9

    Cronenworth hit by pitch.

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

    +2pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  22. B9

    Albert Suarez pitches to Jake Cronenworth

    ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BAL 6·SD 2

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BAL 6·SD 2

  25. T9

    · ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  26. T9

    Rivera flied out to center.

    · ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  28. T9

    Alek Jacob pitches to Emmanuel Rivera

    · ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  29. T9

    · ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

  30. T9

    Basallo grounded out to third, Cowser to second.

    · ·

    BAL 6·SD 2

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

6

Runs

2

10

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

14

TB

11

1

HR

1

5

BB

3

11

K

6

25

LOB

18

Player projections

SD vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.2%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    59.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.4%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.2%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 1, 25sim 96
    14
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    243
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 96
    57
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    263
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    17
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 95
    15
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs