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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7NYM
NYM

NYM

75-64

12
5
DET

DET

80-60

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
24,733 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 12 · DET 5 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM10050060012
DET2000000035

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 1, 25sim 96
    2110
    6(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    2813
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    294
    25(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    114
    12(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 94
    1811
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 93
    138
    5(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 2·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 12–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

2.000OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Justyn-Henry Malloy

Justyn-Henry Malloy

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM75-64
12
5
DET80-60
NYM75-64·DET80-60
NYM

NYM

75-64

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-44001002
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-44221111
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-55222200
SPRINT25.29
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
3-55230000
SPRINT28.278
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-33110011
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
3-55133000
SPRINT25.920
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-44101000
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
2-55223100
SPRINT26.428
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
3-55031000
R. MauricioR. MauricioSS
0-11000000
L. AcunaL. AcunaCF
1-11110000
Team17-4242121712424
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
6.0322370
K. HergetK. HergetRP
2.1433210
R. StanekR. StanekRP
0.2100000
Team9.0855580
DET

DET

80-60

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-55000002
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-33000002
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-33100011
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-22100010
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-33011000
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
3-44132001
SPRINT27.969
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33011010
SPRINT26.941
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-33020011
SPRINT27.765
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
0-44000001
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000000
J. MalloyJ. MalloyRF
1-11111000
Team8-3232585058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. Gipson-LongS. Gipson-Long★RP
4.0566232
B. HornB. HornRP
1.1200000
C. PaddackC. PaddackSP
1.1866012
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
0.1000000
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
1.0100000
J. RogersJ. RogersC
1.0100000
Team9.0171212244

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • N. McLean
    90 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      30%·93.8 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      26%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.6 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      12%·79.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Herget
    45 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      51%·91.0 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      38%·80.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      7%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·76.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Stanek
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      100%·96.3 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • S. Gipson-Long
    70 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      27%·81.3 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      24%·92.4 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      23%·90.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      19%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      7%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Paddack
    41 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      27%·85.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      20%·80.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      12%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      47%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Horn
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      36%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·87.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Rogers
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • EP
      63%·50.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      38%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      100%·87.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

Hits

8

12

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Sep 1NYMNYM10@DETDET8
Sep 2NYMNYM12@DETDET5today
Sep 3NYMNYM2@DETDET6

Season series

NYM lead series 2-0

Sep 1NYMNYM10@DETDET8
Sep 2NYMNYM12@DETDET5today
Sep 3NYMNYM2@DETDET6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 4th Inning

NYMNYM
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.000 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

DETDET
J. Malloy

J. Malloy

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

S. Gipson-Long

S. Gipson-Long

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYM beat DET 12-5. Torrens's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 54% WP

Alonso · homered to center (435 feet).

DETBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 56% WP

Torkelson · singled to left, Carpenter scored, Greene to second.

NYMTop 4th Inning · 6-2
+26pp→ 86% WP

Torrens · homered to right (353 feet), Vientos scored and McNeil scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM10050060012
DET2000000035

Period scoring

NYM won 2 · DET won 2

1
2

Inn 1

Alonso 1

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

5
0

Inn 4

Torrens 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

6
0

Inn 7

McNeil 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
3

Inn 9

Malloy 1

NYM
DET

Play-by-play · 600 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 12·DET 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  3. B9

    Keith flied out to left.

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  6. B9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Colt Keith

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  7. B9

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  8. B9

    Sweeney flied out to center, McKinstry to third.

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  10. B9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Trey Sweeney

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  11. B9

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  12. B9

    Dingler singled to right, McKinstry to second.

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  14. B9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  15. B9

    Stanek relieved Herget

    ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  16. B9

    ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  17. B9

    McKinstry singled to center, Pérez scored.

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 4

  22. B9

    Kevin Herget pitches to Zach McKinstry

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 5

  23. B9

    ·

    NYM 12·DET 4

  24. B9

    Pérez hit a ground rule double, Malloy scored.

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 4

  26. B9

    Malloy to third on wild pitch by Herget.

    ·

    NYM 12·DET 3

  27. B9

    Malloy to third on wild pitch by Herget.

    ·

    NYM 12·DET 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 12·DET 3

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

DET

Home

12

Runs

5

17

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

30

TB

10

4

HR

0

2

BB

5

4

K

8

15

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.5± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.8%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    56.1%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.1%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.