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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7SEA
ATH

ATH

60-72

4
11
SEA

SEA

70-61

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
37,550 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

ATH 4 · SEA 11 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0100002104
SEA2360000011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Athletics, 11–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Colby Thomas

Colby Thomas

RF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C

2.400OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH60-72
4
11
SEA70-61
ATH60-72·SEA70-61
ATH

ATH

60-72

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-33000002
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-55000003
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-22000001
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-44000003
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
2-44222100
SPRINT27.148
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-11000011
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-44000003
W. MacIverW. MacIver★C
1-44011000
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
1-33010012
C. ThomasC. ThomasRF
2-22120000
J. BledayJ. BledayLF
1-11110010
SPRINT27.457
Team7-33334741415
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LopezJ. Lopez★SP
2.0699622
E. NunezE. NunezRP
2.0222020
J. EstesJ. EstesSP
4.0100010
Team8.091111652
SEA

SEA

70-61

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44321001
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
3-55234201
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-33112010
SPRINT28.688
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-22000021
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44012001
SPRINT23.81
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-33100010
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-33210010
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-33100010
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
1-44112001
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-11000000
D. SolanoD. Solano1B
0-11000000
Team9-333311911265
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
6.03111131
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.0322110
T. SaucedoT. SaucedoRP
2.0111210
Team9.07444151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Lopez
    65 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      34%·76.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Estes
    40 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.6 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      18%·77.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·90.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Nunez
    29 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      59%·98.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      41%·88.9 mph·63% whiff

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    93 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      35%·87.2 mph·56% whiff
    • FF
      34%·96.1 mph·32% whiff
    • FS
      22%·81.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.5 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Saucedo
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      41%·91.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·81.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Vargas
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      83%·96.9 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      4%·92.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      4%·96.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      4%·97.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·92.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

4

Runs

11

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 4-3

Mar 28ATHATH2@SEASEA4
Mar 29ATHATH7@SEASEA0
Mar 30ATHATH4@SEASEA2
Mar 30ATHATH1@SEASEA2
Aug 23ATHATH2@SEASEA3
Aug 24ATHATH2@SEASEA1
Aug 24ATHATH4@SEASEA11today

Season series

SEA wins series 7-6

Mar 28ATHATH2@SEASEA4
Mar 29ATHATH7@SEASEA0
Mar 30ATHATH4@SEASEA2
Mar 30ATHATH1@SEASEA2
May 6SEASEA6@ATHATH7
May 7SEASEA5@ATHATH3
May 7SEASEA6@ATHATH5
Jul 29SEASEA3@ATHATH1
Jul 30SEASEA1@ATHATH6
Jul 31SEASEA4@ATHATH5
Aug 23ATHATH2@SEASEA3
Aug 24ATHATH2@SEASEA1
Aug 24ATHATH4@SEASEA11today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 1st Inning

ATHATH
C. Thomas

C. Thomas

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Estes

J. Estes

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 1 H

SEASEA
C. Raleigh

C. Raleigh

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.400 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 13 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat ATH 11-4.

Win probability

SEA vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+12pp→ 83% WP

Raleigh · homered to left (448 feet), Arozarena scored.

ATHTop 2nd Inning · 1-2
+7pp→ 25% WP

Wilson · homered to left (392 feet).

SEABottom 2nd Inning · 1-5
+8pp→ 92% WP

Raleigh · homered to left center (412 feet), Arozarena scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0100002104
SEA23600000—11

Period scoring

ATH won 2 · SEA won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Raleigh 2

1
3

Inn 2

Wilson 1

Raleigh 2

0
6

Inn 3

Robles 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

MacIver 1

1
0

Inn 8

Wilson 1

0

Inn 9

ATH
SEA

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  2. T9

    Langeliers grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  4. T9

    Tayler Saucedo pitches to Shea Langeliers

    · ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  5. T9

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  6. T9

    Urías walked.

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  12. T9

    Tayler Saucedo pitches to Luis Urias

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  13. T9

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  14. T9

    B. Harris struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  20. T9

    Tayler Saucedo pitches to Brett Harris

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  21. T9

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  22. T9

    MacIver grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  25. T9

    Tayler Saucedo pitches to Willie MacIver

    ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  28. B8

    · ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  29. B8

    Solano fouled out to first.

    · ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

  30. B8

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 4·SEA 11

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

4

Runs

11

7

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

11

TB

17

1

HR

2

4

BB

6

15

K

5

14

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SEA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.1± 4.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    55.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.6%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.3%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    2813
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    1811
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 95
    2112
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    134
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 94
    57
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 94
    294
    25(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs