HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+8SD
ARI

ARI

80-82

4
12
SD

SD

90-72

Petco Park · San Diego, California
45,072 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

ARI

league avg

SD

SD

.691

OPS

◀

.717

.658

.306

OBP

◀

.319

.293

4.23

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

4.19

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.91

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

ARI 4 · SD 12 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI1010000024
SD5010303012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 28·Final/SeriesSD wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 12–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. PfaadtARI−47.1pp
  2. 2R. O'HearnSD+29.7pp
  3. 3M. MachadoSD+29.6pp

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte

2B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Manny Machado

Manny Machado

3B

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
K. Marte2B
.2833111101
J. LawlarLF
.1824220012
G. PerdomoSS
.2905011001
T. TawaLF
.2015010001
J. McCannC
.2605020001
I. Vargas1B
.2704010000
A. ThomasCF
.2494020001
J. McCarthyCF
.2044000002
J. BarrosaCF
.1412110020
- G. MorenoC
.2851000011
- C. KaiserSS
.1110000000
Team3741121410

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. PfaadtRP
4.06870575
P. AbnerRP
0.22111122
J. MorilloRP
0.1000004
J. CurtissRP
1.00000211
B. GarciaRP
0.21332022
B. JarvisRP
1.12001137
Team8.011121149171

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2682110000
R. O'HearnRF
.2815220001
M. Machado3B
.2752222100
J. MerrillCF
.2643223020
X. BogaertsSS
.2632112001
G. Sheets1B
.2524101000
J. Cronenworth2B
.2463112002
J. Iglesias2B
.2294012001
F. FerminC
.2514000003
- B. JohnsonRF
.3422100000
- W. Wagner3B
.2253110000
- M. McCoy2B
.1361000021
Team35121112149

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. SearsSP
5.272234113
B. RodriguezRP
1.10001321
D. MorganRP
1.01000221
R. VasquezSP
1.03220119
Team9.01144410174

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • B. Pfaadt
    75 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      23%·89.0 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.2 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      19%·83.7 mph·45% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.4 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      12%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Jarvis
    37 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      32%·81.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Abner
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      64%·89.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      36%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Garcia
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      64%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Curtiss
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      82%·95.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      18%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Morillo
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·90.1 mph·0% whiff

SD

  • J. Sears
    113 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      40%·91.9 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      28%·79.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.0 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      12%·90.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      4%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Rodriguez
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.3 mph·— whiff
  • D. Morgan
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·98.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      33%·84.2 mph·80% whiff
    • SI
      19%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Vasquez
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      37%·96.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      32%·97.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      11%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

11

4

Runs

12

1

Errors

1

Current series

SD wins series 5-2

Jul 8ARIARI6@SDSD3
Jul 9ARIARI0@SDSD1
Jul 10ARIARI8@SDSD2
Jul 11ARIARI3@SDSD4
Sep 27ARIARI4@SDSD7
Sep 28ARIARI1@SDSD5
Sep 28ARIARI4@SDSD12today

Season series

SD wins series 8-5

Jun 14SDSD1@ARIARI5
Jun 14SDSD7@ARIARI8
Jun 15SDSD8@ARIARI2
Jul 8ARIARI6@SDSD3
Jul 9ARIARI0@SDSD1
Jul 10ARIARI8@SDSD2
Jul 11ARIARI3@SDSD4
Aug 5SDSD2@ARIARI6
Aug 6SDSD10@ARIARI5
Aug 7SDSD3@ARIARI2
Sep 27ARIARI4@SDSD7
Sep 28ARIARI1@SDSD5
Sep 28ARIARI4@SDSD12today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 1st Inning

ARIARI
K. Marte

K. Marte

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 7 ER · 6 H

SDSD
M. Machado

M. Machado

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

J. Sears

J. Sears

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SD beat ARI 12-4.

Win probability

SD vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 1st Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 79% WP

Merrill · doubled to right, O'Hearn scored, Machado to third.

SDTop 3rd Inning · 2-5
+6pp→ 87% WP

Tawa · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Lawlar scored, Perdomo out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI1010000024
SD50103030—12

Period scoring

ARI won 0 · SD won 3

1
5

Inn 1

Bogaerts 2

0
0

Inn 2

1
1

Inn 3

Tawa 1

Machado 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Merrill 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Iglesias 2

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Barrosa 2

ARI
SD

Play-by-play · 640 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  2. T9

    McCann grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tawa out at second.

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  6. T9

    Randy Vasquez pitches to James McCann

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  7. T9

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  8. T9

    Tawa singled to center, Kaiser to second.

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  10. T9

    Randy Vasquez pitches to Tim Tawa

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  11. T9

    Kaiser ran for Perdomo

    ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  12. T9

    ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  13. T9

    Barrosa scored on error and Lawlar scored on error, Perdomo safe at first on fielding error by first baseman O'Hearn.

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  17. T9

    Randy Vasquez pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    · ·

    ARI 4·SD 12

  18. T9

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  19. T9

    Lawlar doubled to left, Barrosa to third.

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  22. T9

    Randy Vasquez pitches to Jordan Lawlar

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  23. T9

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  24. T9

    Moreno struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  25. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  26. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 2·SD 12

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

12

11

Hits

11

1

Errors

1

17

TB

18

1

HR

1

4

BB

4

10

K

9

22

LOB

14

Player projections

SD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.3± 2.8low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.2± 2.9low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.3± 1.3low
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Jordan LawlarARI
    1.1± 0.9low

Total bases

  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.9± 2.8low
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.1± 1.8low
  • Jordan LawlarARI
    0.6± 1.1low
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 3.1low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.6± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    3.4± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    56.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.1%

    P(SD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.5%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.