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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9MIA
MIA

MIA

58-62

13
4
CLE

CLE

62-57

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
19,738 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 13 · CLE 4 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA40002520013
CLE1003000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    114
    12(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    2112
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 95
    1811
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 93
    305
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 93
    2110
    6(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 93
    57
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 13·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 13–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jakob Marsee

Jakob Marsee

CF

2.800OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

7

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Gabriel Arias

Gabriel Arias

SS

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA58-62
13
4
CLE62-57
MIA58-62·CLE62-57
MIA

MIA

58-62

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-55221101
SPRINT2872
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
2-44321010
SPRINT2622
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-55112000
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
2-55221012
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-55110001
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
4-55247200
SPRINT27.765
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-55000003
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-11000000
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
4-44241110
SPRINT26.326
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
1-11010000
D. HillD. HillRF
0-11000000
D. MyersD. MyersCF
0-44000002
Team17-4545131713439
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
5.0344082
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
1.0100000
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
2.0100010
T. ZuberT. ZuberRP
1.0000020
Team9.05440112
CLE

CLE

62-57

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44111100
SPRINT26.530
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-44000001
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-33100002
SPRINT25.411
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
1-44110001
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-33113101
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33000002
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-33000001
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33010002
N. JonesN. JonesRF
0-11000000
Team5-31314542011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
3.0544142
K. AllardK. AllardRP
1.2322021
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.1555031
C. HernandezC. HernandezRP
2.0222200
A. HedgesA. HedgesC
1.0200000
SPRINT24.43
Team9.0171313394

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Perez
    91 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.8 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      19%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      14%·80.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      2%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      2%·81.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Phillips
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      35%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.3 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      4%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Simpson
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      27%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Zuber
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • ST
      64%·83.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      27%·89.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.6 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • G. Williams
    75 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      32%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·82.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      20%·85.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Festa
    36 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      33%·91.0 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      28%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Hernandez
    32 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.5 mph·11% whiff
    • FS
      31%·88.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Allard
    29 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      38%·89.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      21%·84.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·70.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Hedges
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FA
      100%·71.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

Hits

5

13

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Aug 12MIAMIA3@CLECLE4
Aug 13MIAMIA13@CLECLE4today
Aug 14MIAMIA4@CLECLE9

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 12MIAMIA3@CLECLE4
Aug 13MIAMIA13@CLECLE4today
Aug 14MIAMIA4@CLECLE9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 36pp · Bottom 4th Inning

MIAMIA
J. Marsee

J. Marsee

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.800 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 3 H

CLECLE
G. Arias

G. Arias

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat CLE 13-4. Arias's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 1st Inning · 4-0
+26pp→ 74% WP

Marsee · homered to right (403 feet), Stowers scored and Lopez scored.

CLEBottom 4th Inning · 4-4
+36pp→ 60% WP

Arias · homered to left (433 feet), Manzardo scored and Kayfus scored.

MIATop 5th Inning · 6-4
+30pp→ 68% WP

Marsee · homered to right (385 feet), Hicks scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA40002520013
CLE1003000004

Period scoring

MIA won 4 · CLE won 1

4
1

Inn 1

Marsee 3

Kwan 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Arias 3

2
0

Inn 5

Marsee 2

5
0

Inn 6

Marsee 2

2
0

Inn 7

Ram 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIA
CLE

Play-by-play · 632 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  2. B9

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  3. B9

    Kayfus struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  7. B9

    Tyler Zuber pitches to CJ Kayfus

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  8. B9

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  9. B9

    Manzardo struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  15. B9

    Tyler Zuber pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  16. B9

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  17. B9

    Jones grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  21. B9

    Tyler Zuber pitches to Nolan Jones

    ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  22. B9

    Zuber relieved Phillips

    · ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  25. T9

    · ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  26. T9

    Hicks lined out to left.

    · ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 13·CLE 4

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

13

Runs

4

17

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

35

TB

11

4

HR

2

3

BB

0

9

K

11

22

LOB

3

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Javier SanojaMIA · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CLE vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    55.4%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.8%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.5%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.