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  • WNBA6:00 - 1st
    SEA 4@TOR 10
    +11.2ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHC
ATL

ATL

62-76

6
7
CHC

CHC

79-59

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
39,673 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

ATL 6 · CHC 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
ATL10203000006
CHC00011202017

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 1·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Atlanta Braves, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Carson Kelly

Carson Kelly

C

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
ATL62-76
6
7
CHC79-59
ATL62-76·CHC79-59
ATL

ATL

62-76

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-55000002
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44110013
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-44100001
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-33220021
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-44121010
SPRINT27.354
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-55124001
SPRINT27.148
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
2-33021000
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-44000012
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
1-44010002
M. OzunaM. OzunaDH
0-11000001
Team10-373761060513
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
5.0533311
H. StrattonH. StrattonRP
1.0211000
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0000020
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0222011
J. BrebbiaJ. BrebbiaRP
1.2210020
Team9.21176362
CHC

CHC

79-59

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-33000001
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-55000001
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-55110001
SPRINT27.457
I. HappI. Happ★LF
3-55231101
SPRINT27.662
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-55110001
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-44123110
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44110000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33112010
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
2-33021010
SPRINT28.992
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
0-11000000
C. SantanaC. Santana1B
0-11000001
Team11-39397117236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
4.0533330
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0433020
A. CivaleA. CivaleSP
3.0100040
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000220
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000020
Team10.010665130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • S. Strider
    88 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      59%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·83.7 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      10%·77.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      3%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • H. Stratton
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·93.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Brebbia
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      80%·85.2 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • CU
      47%·86.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      47%·96.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      6%·93.6 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lee
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      58%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.5 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • C. Rea
    73 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.7 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      12%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·85.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      7%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·83.4 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Civale
    41 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      46%·90.0 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      22%·78.6 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      7%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      65%·97.8 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      19%·92.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rogers
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      57%·77.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      43%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      62%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

6

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Sep 1ATLATL6@CHCCHC7today
Sep 2ATLATL3@CHCCHC4
Sep 3ATLATL5@CHCCHC1

Season series

CHC lead series 1-0

Sep 1ATLATL6@CHCCHC7today
Sep 2ATLATL3@CHCCHC4
Sep 3ATLATL5@CHCCHC1
Sep 8CHCCHC1@ATLATL4
Sep 9CHCCHC6@ATLATL1
Sep 10CHCCHC3@ATLATL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 41pp · Bottom 8th Inning

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.467 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

CHCCHC
C. Kelly

C. Kelly

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHC beat ATL 7-6. Kelly's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (41pp).

Win probability

CHC vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+19pp→ 73% WP

Harris II · singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored and Baldwin scored, Albies to third.

CHCBottom 8th Inning · 6-6
+41pp→ 59% WP

Kelly · homered to left (389 feet), Happ scored.

CHCBottom 10th Inning · 6-7
+36pp→ 100% WP

Kelly · singled to left, Suzuki scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
ATL10203000006
CHC00011202017

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · CHC won 4

1
0

Inn 1

Albies 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

II 2

0
1

Inn 4

Happ 1

3
1

Inn 5

II 2

Shaw 1

0
2

Inn 6

Swanson 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Kelly 2

0
0

Inn 9

0
1

Inn 10

Kelly 1

ATL
CHC

Play-by-play · 674 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    ATL 6·CHC 7

  2. B10

    Kelly singled to left, Suzuki scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 7

    +36pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 7

  4. B10

    John Brebbia pitches to Carson Kelly

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 7

  5. B10

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  6. B10

    Hoerner grounded out to second, Suzuki to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

    −8pp

  7. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  8. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  9. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  10. B10

    John Brebbia pitches to Nico Hoerner

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  11. B10

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  12. B10

    Happ struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

    −11pp

  13. B10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  14. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  15. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  16. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  17. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  18. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  19. B10

    John Brebbia pitches to Ian Happ

    ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  20. B10

    Bruján at shortstop.

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  21. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  22. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  23. T10

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  24. T10

    Ozuna struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

    +9pp

  25. T10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  26. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  27. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  28. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  29. T10

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Marcell Ozuna

    · ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

  30. T10

    Ozuna hit for Allen

    ·

    ATL 6·CHC 6

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

6

Runs

7

10

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

13

TB

20

0

HR

2

5

BB

3

13

K

6

17

LOB

16

Player projections

CHC vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    60.7%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.7%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 11 players in cohort
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    265
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 95
    218
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    304
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 94
    305
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 94
    213
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    112
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs