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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYY
PHI

PHI

60-45

3
4
NYY

NYY

57-48

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
45,612 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

PHI 3 · NYY 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0200100003
NYY040000004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Philadelphia Phillies, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Otto Kemp

Otto Kemp

LF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ryan McMahon

Ryan McMahon

3B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI60-45
3
4
NYY57-48
PHI60-45·NYY57-48
PHI

PHI

60-45

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000002
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000000
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-44111102
SPRINT27.148
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44010001
SPRINT28.381
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
2-44222202
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-33010002
SPRINT28.278
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
0-11000010
J. RojasJ. Rojas★CF
0-22000002
B. StottB. Stott2B
0-11000000
B. MarshB. MarshLF
0-11000000
Team5-32323533112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. WheelerZ. Wheeler★SP
5.2544280
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.1000100
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0100010
Team8.0644390
NYY

NYY

57-48

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44011002
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-33000001
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44110002
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-33100001
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
1-33110000
SPRINT26.838
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
2-33122001
SPRINT2622
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-44000002
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-00001020
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
0-11000000
Team6-2828464039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
5.1433183
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
0.2100010
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0000010
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0000000
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000020
Team9.05331123

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • Z. Wheeler
    103 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.7 mph·27% whiff
    • ST
      18%·82.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      14%·86.6 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.7 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      2%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      35%·86.8 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      35%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • M. Strahm
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·83.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.9 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    90 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      34%·94.5 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      16%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      1%·81.0 mph·— whiff
  • L. Weaver
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      31%·92.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      69%·83.5 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      58%·98.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      33%·92.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      8%·91.7 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Hill
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·89.4 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      17%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

6

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Jul 25PHIPHI12@NYYNYY5
Jul 26PHIPHI9@NYYNYY4
Jul 27PHIPHI3@NYYNYY4today

Season series

PHI wins series 2-1

Jul 25PHIPHI12@NYYNYY5
Jul 26PHIPHI9@NYYNYY4
Jul 27PHIPHI3@NYYNYY4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

PHIPHI
O. Kemp

O. Kemp

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

NYYNYY
R. McMahon

R. McMahon

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat PHI 4-3. McMahon's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

NYY vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 58% WP

Castellanos · homered to left (363 feet).

NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 2-2
+19pp→ 71% WP

McMahon · doubled to right, Stanton scored and Chisholm Jr. scored, Domínguez to third.

PHITop 5th Inning · 3-4
+10pp→ 31% WP

Kemp · homered to center (434 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0200100003
NYY04000000—4

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · NYY won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
4

Inn 2

Castellanos 1

McMahon 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Kemp 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PHI
NYY

Play-by-play · 529 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  2. T9

    Kemp struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  10. T9

    Devin Williams pitches to Otto Kemp

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  11. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  12. T9

    Realmuto flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

    +5pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  16. T9

    Devin Williams pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  17. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  18. T9

    Castellanos struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

    +5pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  22. T9

    Devin Williams pitches to Nick Castellanos

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  23. T9

    Williams relieved Hill

    ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  26. B8

    · ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  27. B8

    Volpe grounded out to second.

    · ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 3·NYY 4

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

3

Runs

4

5

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

14

TB

9

3

HR

0

1

BB

3

12

K

9

7

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    49.7%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.2%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.1%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 30, 25sim 98
    192
    17(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 97
    224
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    223
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 95
    211
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    130
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    253
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs