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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6NYY
NYY

NYY

77-61

7
1
HOU

HOU

76-63

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
33,133 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 7 · HOU 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0200400107
HOU0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    198
    29(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    133
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    192
    17(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    253
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 95
    108
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    135
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 2·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Houston Astros and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

2B

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Mauricio Dubon

Mauricio Dubon

SS

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY77-61
7
1
HOU76-63
NYY77-61·HOU76-63
NYY

NYY

77-61

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-44110011
SPRINT24.74
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-55110002
SPRINT27.560
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-55120001
SPRINT26.838
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-44000002
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
2-44224101
SPRINT26.735
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-44000001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
3-44233201
SPRINT28.175
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-11010000
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-44010002
J. DominguezJ. DominguezLF
0-11000001
R. McMahonR. McMahon3B
0-22000011
Team11-383871173213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
7.0411350
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
2.0100040
Team9.0511390
HOU

HOU

76-63

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-33000011
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT27.251
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000001
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44011000
SPRINT25.513
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-44000002
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT29.395
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-22010011
SPRINT26.428
C. SalazarC. Salazar★C
0-22000001
Team5-3030151039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
5.0866182
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
2.0100020
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0111111
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.0100020
Team9.011772133

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

HOU

  • S. Okert
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      69%·81.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      31%·90.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

7

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Sep 3NYYNYY7@HOUHOU1today
Sep 4NYYNYY7@HOUHOU8
Sep 4NYYNYY8@HOUHOU4

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Aug 8HOUHOU5@NYYNYY3
Aug 9HOUHOU4@NYYNYY5
Aug 10HOUHOU7@NYYNYY1
Sep 3NYYNYY7@HOUHOU1today
Sep 4NYYNYY7@HOUHOU8
Sep 4NYYNYY8@HOUHOU4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 2nd Inning

NYYNYY
J. Chisholm Jr.

J. Chisholm Jr.

2B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

HOUHOU
M. Dubon

M. Dubon

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat HOU 7-1. Chisholm Jr.'s play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+20pp→ 72% WP

Chisholm Jr. · homered to right (392 feet), Grisham scored.

HOUBottom 3rd Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 41% WP

Salazar · hit by pitch, Dubón to second.

NYYTop 5th Inning · 6-0
+17pp→ 96% WP

Grisham · homered to left center (358 feet), Goldschmidt scored, Bellinger scored and Judge scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0200400107
HOU0000010001

Period scoring

NYY won 3 · HOU won 1

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Jr. 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

4
0

Inn 5

Grisham 4

0
1

Inn 6

Diaz 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 9

NYY
HOU

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  2. B9

    ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  3. B9

    Smith lined into double play, pitcher to first, Diaz doubled off first.

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  9. B9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Cam Smith

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  11. B9

    Urías struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  18. B9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Ramon Urias

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  19. B9

    ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  20. B9

    Diaz reached on infield single to third.

    ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  23. B9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Yainer Diaz

    ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  26. T9

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  27. T9

    Domínguez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 7·HOU 1

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

7

Runs

1

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

22

TB

5

3

HR

0

2

BB

3

13

K

9

13

LOB

20

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

HOU vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    2.4± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    49.7%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.7%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.2%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.