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FINAL+6NYM
PHI

PHI

76-57

0
6
NYM

NYM

72-61

Citi Field · Queens, New York
41,893 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

PHI 0 · NYM 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000000000
NYM003010206

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 27·Final/SeriesNYM win series 6-0

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Philadelphia Phillies, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Alec Bohm

Alec Bohm

3B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Mark Vientos

Mark Vientos

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI76-57
0
6
NYM72-61
PHI76-57·NYM72-61
PHI

PHI

76-57

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000001
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-44000000
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-33020000
SPRINT26.632
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
1-33010001
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-33000001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-33000001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-33000001
Team5-3131050007
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WalkerT. Walker★SP
5.01044130
D. RobertD. RobertRP
1.0000120
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0222011
L. TrivinoL. TrivinoRP
1.0000010
Team8.01266271
NYM

NYM

72-61

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-44121000
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44011001
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-33111011
SPRINT25.29
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
3-44130001
SPRINT28.278
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
2-44123101
SPRINT25.513
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-44000000
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
0-44000001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-44120001
SPRINT26.735
H. SengerH. Senger★C
1-33110011
Team12-34346126127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
8.0400060
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0100010
Team9.0500070

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • T. Walker
    102 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      31%·86.5 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·87.3 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      8%·75.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      41%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Robert
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      53%·84.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      20%·89.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Trivino
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      33%·79.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.0 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • N. McLean
    95 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      29%·85.7 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      19%·80.0 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      16%·95.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.9 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.5 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Raley
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      36%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·81.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      21%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

12

0

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 6-0

Apr 21PHIPHI4@NYMNYM5
Apr 22PHIPHI1@NYMNYM5
Apr 23PHIPHI3@NYMNYM4
Aug 25PHIPHI3@NYMNYM13
Aug 26PHIPHI5@NYMNYM6
Aug 27PHIPHI0@NYMNYM6today

Season series

NYM lead series 7-2

Apr 21PHIPHI4@NYMNYM5
Apr 22PHIPHI1@NYMNYM5
Apr 23PHIPHI3@NYMNYM4
Jun 20NYMNYM2@PHIPHI10
Jun 21NYMNYM11@PHIPHI4
Jun 22NYMNYM1@PHIPHI7
Aug 25PHIPHI3@NYMNYM13
Aug 26PHIPHI5@NYMNYM6
Aug 27PHIPHI0@NYMNYM6today
Sep 8NYMNYM0@PHIPHI1
Sep 9NYMNYM3@PHIPHI9
Sep 10NYMNYM3@PHIPHI11
Sep 11NYMNYM4@PHIPHI6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

PHIPHI
A. Bohm

A. Bohm

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 10 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
M. Vientos

M. Vientos

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

NYM beat PHI 6-0.

Win probability

NYM vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 62% WP

Nimmo · singled to right.

NYMBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 80% WP

Lindor · singled to center, Baty scored, Senger to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000000000
NYM00301020—6

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · NYM won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Lindor 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Vientos 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Vientos 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PHI
NYM

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  2. T9

    Realmuto popped out to second.

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  6. T9

    Brooks Raley pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  7. T9

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  8. T9

    Harper flied out to left.

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  11. T9

    Brooks Raley pitches to Bryce Harper

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  12. T9

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  13. T9

    Schwarber struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  20. T9

    Brooks Raley pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    · ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  21. T9

    ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  22. T9

    Turner reached on infield single to third.

    ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  26. T9

    Brooks Raley pitches to Trea Turner

    ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  27. T9

    Raley relieved McLean

    ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PHI 0·NYM 6

  30. B8

    ·

    PHI 0·NYM 6

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

0

Runs

6

5

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

5

TB

16

0

HR

1

0

BB

2

7

K

7

11

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 96
    21
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 96
    102
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 96
    107
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    106
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 95
    60
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    224
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

NYM vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.5± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    48.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.5%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.8%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.