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FINAL+4ARI
BOS

BOS

78-65

1
5
ARI

ARI

72-71

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
35,679 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

BOS 1 · ARI 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0010000001
ARI030100105

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 6·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Boston Red Sox, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
James McCann

James McCann

C

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS78-65
1
5
ARI72-71
BOS78-65·ARI72-71
BOS

BOS

78-65

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-44011000
SPRINT26.123
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000000
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.969
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT25.411
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-44010002
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-44000002
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33000001
N. EatonN. Eaton★OF
1-33110001
Team7-3434171009
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
5.0742320
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
1.0000030
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
0.2111100
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.1100020
Team8.0953470
ARI

ARI

72-71

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-22001010
SPRINT26.838
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-33100010
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-33010010
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-33001001
AA. Del Castillo★DH
2-33120000
SPRINT26.326
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
3-44230000
SPRINT25.29
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
1-44010002
T. LocklearT. Locklear★1B
1-33110012
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
1-22012000
SPRINT29.698
G. MorenoG. MorenoC
0-11000001
J. LawlarJ. LawlarLF
0-11000001
Team9-2929594047
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. PfaadtB. Pfaadt★RP
6.0611070
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
1.0000010
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0100000
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
1.0000010
Team9.0711090

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ARI

  • J. Woodford
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      44%·81.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      22%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

1

Runs

5

1

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 6BOSBOS5@ARIARI10
Sep 7BOSBOS1@ARIARI5today
Sep 7BOSBOS7@ARIARI4

Season series

ARI leads series 2-0

Sep 6BOSBOS5@ARIARI10
Sep 7BOSBOS1@ARIARI5today
Sep 7BOSBOS7@ARIARI4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

BOSBOS
J. Duran

J. Duran

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

ARIARI
J. McCann

J. McCann

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 6 H

How it ended

ARI beat BOS 5-1.

Win probability

ARI vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 76% WP

McCarthy · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Del Castillo scored and McCann scored on error, Locklear safe at third on fielding error by shortstop Story, McCarthy to second.

BOSTop 3rd Inning · 1-3
+7pp→ 26% WP

Yoshida · singled to center, Eaton scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0010000001
ARI03010010—5

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · ARI won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

McCarthy 2

1
0

Inn 3

Yoshida 1

0
1

Inn 4

McCarthy 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Alexander 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
ARI

Play-by-play · 523 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  2. T9

    Narváez flied out to center.

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  4. T9

    John Curtiss pitches to Carlos Narvaez

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  5. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  6. T9

    González struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  12. T9

    John Curtiss pitches to Romy Gonzalez

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  13. T9

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  14. T9

    Lowe grounded out to second.

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

    +0.8pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  20. T9

    John Curtiss pitches to Nathaniel Lowe

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  21. T9

    Curtiss relieved Beeks

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  24. B8

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  25. B8

    Locklear struck out looking.

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  26. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  27. B8

    Thomas picked off and caught stealing second.

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  28. B8

    Thomas picked off and caught stealing second.

    ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 1·ARI 5

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

1

Runs

5

7

Hits

9

1

Errors

1

8

TB

10

0

HR

0

0

BB

4

9

K

7

8

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ARI vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    47.2%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.9%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.4%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 19, 25sim 98
    102
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 97
    27
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    220
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    106
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    221
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 96
    107
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs