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FINAL+2BAL
NYY

NYY

86-68

2
4
BAL

BAL

73-81

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
26,269 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

NYY 2 · BAL 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0000002002
BAL010002104

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 19·Final/SeriesNYY win series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off New York Yankees, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

2B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Ryan Mountcastle

Ryan Mountcastle

1B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY86-68
2
4
BAL73-81
NYY86-68·BAL73-81
NYY

NYY

86-68

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-22000000
SPRINT24.74
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000001
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-33000011
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
0-44000001
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
1-44110003
SPRINT27.662
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44112102
SPRINT28.175
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000000
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-22010011
SPRINT25.18
Team4-30302421311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
5.1431241
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.0000110
T. HillT. HillRP
0.1211000
C. DovalC. DovalRP
0.1000000
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0100010
Team8.0742361
BAL

BAL

73-81

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-44000000
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
1-44210001
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-33121011
SPRINT28.175
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
1-33112100
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-33000011
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT26.530
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-44011000
SPRINT25.310
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-44010001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000001
Team7-3131474136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
6.0100270
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
1.0222011
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0100110
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0000020
Team9.04223111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • W. Warren
    87 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.5 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      18%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.7 mph·67% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      80%·79.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      31%·73.1 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      31%·85.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      31%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    6 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Doval
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      100%·98.5 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    106 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.2 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      22%·86.9 mph·55% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.7 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      12%·83.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      8%·78.9 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Enns
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      71%·94.7 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·76.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • CH
      38%·87.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      19%·85.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Akin
    9 pitches·67% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.3 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

2

Runs

4

2

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 4-3

Apr 28NYYNYY3@BALBAL4
Apr 29NYYNYY15@BALBAL3
Apr 30NYYNYY4@BALBAL5
Sep 18NYYNYY7@BALBAL0
Sep 19NYYNYY2@BALBAL4today
Sep 20NYYNYY6@BALBAL1
Sep 21NYYNYY7@BALBAL1

Season series

Series tied 4-4

Apr 28NYYNYY3@BALBAL4
Apr 29NYYNYY15@BALBAL3
Apr 30NYYNYY4@BALBAL5
Jun 20BALBAL5@NYYNYY3
Jun 21BALBAL0@NYYNYY9
Jun 22BALBAL2@NYYNYY4
Sep 18NYYNYY7@BALBAL0
Sep 19NYYNYY2@BALBAL4today
Sep 20NYYNYY6@BALBAL1
Sep 21NYYNYY7@BALBAL1
Sep 26BALBAL4@NYYNYY8
Sep 27BALBAL1@NYYNYY6
Sep 28BALBAL2@NYYNYY3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 7th Inning

NYYNYY
J. Chisholm Jr.

J. Chisholm Jr.

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
R. Mountcastle

R. Mountcastle

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat NYY 4-2. Chisholm Jr.'s play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

BAL vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 7th Inning · 2-3
+18pp→ 26% WP

Chisholm Jr. · homered to right center (388 feet), Slater scored.

BALBottom 7th Inning · 2-4
+13pp→ 87% WP

Henderson · doubled to left, Westburg scored.

BALBottom 8th Inning · 2-4
+11pp→ 93% WP

Beavers · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0000002002
BAL01000210—4

Period scoring

NYY won 1 · BAL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Mountcastle 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Mountcastle 1

2
1

Inn 7

Jr. 2

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYY
BAL

Play-by-play · 522 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  2. T9

    Chisholm Jr. struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

    +0.7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  8. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  9. T9

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  10. T9

    Slater struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

    +3pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  14. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Austin Slater

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  15. T9

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  16. T9

    Rosario flied out to center.

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

    +4pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  18. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Amed Rosario

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  19. T9

    Akin relieved Garcia

    ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  20. T9

    Carlson in left field.

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  21. T9

    Beavers in right field.

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  24. B8

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  25. B8

    Cowser flied out to right.

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

    −0.7pp

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  27. B8

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Colton Cowser

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  28. B8

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

  29. B8

    Basallo flied out to center.

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

    −1pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 2·BAL 4

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

2

Runs

4

4

Hits

7

2

Errors

0

7

TB

12

1

HR

1

3

BB

3

11

K

6

10

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    46.9%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.0%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.0%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 98
    21
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 98
    107
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 97
    27
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    106
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 96
    107
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    220
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs