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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2PHI
PHI

PHI

68-49

4
2
TEX

TEX

60-59

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
32,444 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 4 · TEX 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0001200014
TEX2000000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 27, 25sim 97
    223
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 97
    223
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    252
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 11, 25sim 96
    224
    17(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    220
    17(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    250
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 10·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Edmundo Sosa

Edmundo Sosa

2B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

DH

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI68-49
4
2
TEX60-59
PHI68-49·TEX60-59
PHI

PHI

68-49

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-33100020
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33000011
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-44020000
SPRINT28.381
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-44000000
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-33100000
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-33111100
SPRINT28.278
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT28.688
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-22011000
B. MarshB. MarshLF
0-11001001
Team7-3131474134
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. WheelerZ. Wheeler★SP
5.0322371
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100020
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0100000
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0100000
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0100010
Team9.07223101
TEX

TEX

60-59

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-55000002
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-22000020
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44100001
SPRINT28.175
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-11112110
SPRINT25.716
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT2872
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-22010001
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-44010002
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-44010002
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
1-22010001
SPRINT28.278
J. BurgerJ. Burger1B
0-22000000
Team7-34342721310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
4.1433311
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
0.2100010
C. WinnC. WinnRP
2.0000010
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0100010
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0111000
Team9.0744341

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • Z. Wheeler
    83 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      37%·94.2 mph·18% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      17%·85.1 mph·64% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.8 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Banks
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      60%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·82.9 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·93.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      13%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FS
      58%·97.4 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      25%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      17%·100.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    9 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      67%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • ST
      63%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.7 mph·0% whiff

TEX

  • P. Corbin
    78 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      29%·87.7 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      28%·79.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      21%·81.8 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      15%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·72.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      3%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Milner
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      39%·87.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      39%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Winn
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      38%·91.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·97.1 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      13%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • CU
      36%·75.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      33%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

Aug 9PHIPHI9@TEXTEX1
Aug 9PHIPHI3@TEXTEX2
Aug 10PHIPHI4@TEXTEX2today

Season series

PHI wins series 3-0

Aug 9PHIPHI9@TEXTEX1
Aug 9PHIPHI3@TEXTEX2
Aug 10PHIPHI4@TEXTEX2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 1st Inning

PHIPHI
E. Sosa

E. Sosa

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

TEXTEX
J. Pederson

J. Pederson

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

P. Corbin

P. Corbin

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PHI beat TEX 4-2. Pederson's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+21pp→ 65% WP

Pederson · homered to right (352 feet), Semien scored.

PHITop 4th Inning · 1-2
+14pp→ 44% WP

Harper · doubled to right, Turner scored.

PHITop 5th Inning · 3-2
+17pp→ 69% WP

Wilson · singled to center, Stott scored, Wilson to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0001200014
TEX2000000002

Period scoring

PHI won 3 · TEX won 1

0
2

Inn 1

Pederson 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Harper 1

2
0

Inn 5

Sosa 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Marsh 1

PHI
TEX

Play-by-play · 535 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  3. B9

    Smith struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  7. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Josh Smith

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  8. B9

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  9. B9

    Higashioka lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

    −5pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  12. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Kyle Higashioka

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  13. B9

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  14. B9

    Jung singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

    +6pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  19. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Josh Jung

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  20. B9

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  21. B9

    Burger grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

    −3pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  25. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Jake Burger

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  26. B9

    Duran relieved Kerkering

    ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  29. T9

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

  30. T9

    Turner flied out to center.

    · ·

    PHI 4·TEX 2

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

4

Runs

2

7

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

12

TB

10

1

HR

1

3

BB

3

4

K

10

13

LOB

14

Player projections

TEX vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    49.2%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.2%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.9%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278