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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2KC
KC

KC

67-64

10
8
DET

DET

78-54

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
31,538 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 10 · DET 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC00600310010
DET0103301008

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesDET wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 10–8.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Riley Greene

Riley Greene

LF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC67-64
10
8
DET78-54
KC67-64·DET78-54
KC

KC

67-64

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-33111000
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44111011
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-55122101
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44221110
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44111000
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
2-55121001
SPRINT26.225
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-33110021
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-55112001
SPRINT26.941
L. MaileL. Maile★C
1-33110000
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-22000000
Team12-383810129245
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
4.1666252
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
0.1211000
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.1000030
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0111001
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.0000010
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0000010
Team9.09882103
DET

DET

78-54

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-55111100
SPRINT27.969
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-55010002
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-55111102
SPRINT26.123
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-22311110
SPRINT2744
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-44221000
SPRINT27.765
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33111000
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
2-44023001
SPRINT28.278
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
0-44000003
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-33000012
Team9-35358983210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
5.01088031
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0111110
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
1.0111101
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.0000010
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.0000200
Team9.0121010452

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • S. Lugo
    79 pitches·28% CSW
    • CU
      24%·78.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      18%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      16%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·89.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CS
      4%·69.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SL
      43%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·96.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      19%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      63%·93.7 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      21%·81.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      60%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      30%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      43%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.5 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    87 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.7 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      32%·77.5 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      1%·86.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Montero
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      21%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      59%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      45%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·82.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      18%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • CH
      82%·87.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.2 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

9

10

Runs

8

0

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 5-2

Apr 17KCKC1@DETDET6
Apr 18KCKC3@DETDET7
Apr 19KCKC1@DETDET3
Apr 20KCKC4@DETDET3
Aug 22KCKC5@DETDET7
Aug 23KCKC2@DETDET4
Aug 24KCKC10@DETDET8today

Season series

DET leads series 7-3

Apr 17KCKC1@DETDET6
Apr 18KCKC3@DETDET7
Apr 19KCKC1@DETDET3
Apr 20KCKC4@DETDET3
May 31DETDET7@KCKC5
May 31DETDET0@KCKC1
Jun 1DETDET1@KCKC0
Aug 22KCKC5@DETDET7
Aug 23KCKC2@DETDET4
Aug 24KCKC10@DETDET8today
Aug 30DETDET5@KCKC3
Aug 30DETDET1@KCKC3
Aug 31DETDET5@KCKC0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 3rd Inning

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

DETDET
R. Greene

R. Greene

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 8 ER · 10 H

How it ended

KC beat DET 10-8. Pasquantino's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 3rd Inning · 4-1
+21pp→ 73% WP

Pasquantino · homered to right (429 feet), Witt Jr. scored.

DETBottom 4th Inning · 6-4
+20pp→ 38% WP

Jones · doubled to center, Greene scored, McKinstry scored and Dingler scored.

DETBottom 5th Inning · 6-6
+19pp→ 64% WP

Dingler · doubled to left, Greene scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC00600310010
DET0103301008

Period scoring

KC won 2 · DET won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Greene 1

6
0

Inn 3

Pasquantino 2

0
3

Inn 4

Jones 3

0
3

Inn 5

Dingler 1

3
0

Inn 6

Isbel 2

1
1

Inn 7

Garcia 1

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

KC
DET

Play-by-play · 612 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 10·DET 8

  2. B9

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  3. B9

    Torkelson fouled out to first.

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  5. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  6. B9

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  7. B9

    Carpenter struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

    −4pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  11. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Kerry Carpenter

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  12. B9

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  13. B9

    Pérez grounded out to first.

    · ·

    KC 10·DET 8

    −4pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  21. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Wenceel Perez

    · ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  22. B9

    Estévez relieved Bowlan

    ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  23. B9

    Tolbert in left field.

    KC 10·DET 8

  24. B9

    Frazier at second base.

    KC 10·DET 8

  25. B9

    Rave in right field.

    KC 10·DET 8

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    KC 10·DET 8

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    KC 10·DET 8

  28. T9

    · ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  29. T9

    Isbel flied out to left.

    · ·

    KC 10·DET 8

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 10·DET 8

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

DET

Home

10

Runs

8

12

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

22

TB

20

2

HR

3

4

BB

2

5

K

10

14

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.5± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.2%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    57.6%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.4%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 94
    138
    5(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 93
    612
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 93
    2110
    6(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 93
    127
    22(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 91
    2112
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 91
    122
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs