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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5PHI
SEA

SEA

68-58

7
12
PHI

PHI

72-53

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
44,471 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

SEA 7 · PHI 12 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000004037
PHI0600014112

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 18·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Seattle Mariners, 12–7.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Mitch Garver

Mitch Garver

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper

1B

2.000OPS

6-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA68-58
7
12
PHI72-53
SEA68-58·PHI72-53
SEA

SEA

68-58

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000011
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-55000003
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44020002
SPRINT28.688
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000001
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT23.81
M. GarverM. Garver★C
2-44222102
SPRINT24.53
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-22110001
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-44220002
SPRINT25.513
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-44114100
SPRINT27.662
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-11000001
Team9-36367962114
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
2.0966012
C. VargasC. VargasRP
3.0400000
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
2.0755022
J. KowarJ. KowarRP
1.0211210
Team8.0221212244
PHI

PHI

72-53

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
4-66245100
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-55121011
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
3-66233201
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
3-55131101
SPRINT28.381
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-55020000
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
2-55120001
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
2-44220010
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
2-55221000
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-55121000
Team22-4646122212424
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
6.24220101
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
0.1222001
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0000020
N. HoffmanN. HoffmanRP
1.0333120
Team9.09771142

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    65 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.7 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      40%·88.2 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      11%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      9%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Legumina
    38 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      45%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      16%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      80%·97.5 mph·7% whiff
    • FC
      10%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Kowar
    30 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      53%·85.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      47%·97.0 mph·14% whiff

PHI

  • R. Suarez
    102 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      28%·90.3 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      21%·74.4 mph·55% whiff
    • FC
      20%·87.5 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      13%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·79.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.5 mph·25% whiff
  • N. Hoffman
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      27%·79.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      46%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.3 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Romano
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      80%·85.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

22

7

Runs

12

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

Aug 18SEASEA7@PHIPHI12today
Aug 19SEASEA4@PHIPHI6
Aug 20SEASEA2@PHIPHI11

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Aug 18SEASEA7@PHIPHI12today
Aug 19SEASEA4@PHIPHI6
Aug 20SEASEA2@PHIPHI11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

SEASEA
M. Garver

M. Garver

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Vargas

C. Vargas

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 H

PHIPHI
B. Harper

B. Harper

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-6 · 2 HR · 2.000 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

6.2 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 4 H

How it ended

PHI beat SEA 12-7.

Win probability

PHI vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 70% WP

Castellanos · singled to right, Marsh to third.

PHIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-5
+7pp→ 94% WP

Turner · homered to left (365 feet), Kepler scored and Stott scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000004037
PHI06000141—12

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · PHI won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
6

Inn 2

Turner 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Harper 1

4
4

Inn 7

Young 3

Harper 2

0
1

Inn 8

Turner 1

3

Inn 9

Garver 1

SEA
PHI

Play-by-play · 621 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  2. T9

    Raleigh struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  6. T9

    Arozarena to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  7. T9

    Arozarena to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  10. T9

    Nolan Hoffman pitches to Cal Raleigh

    · ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  11. T9

    ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  12. T9

    Arozarena walked.

    ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  14. T9

    Crawford scored on Hoffman wild pitch.

    ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  15. T9

    Crawford scored on Hoffman wild pitch.

    ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SEA 6·PHI 12

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 6·PHI 12

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 6·PHI 12

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 6·PHI 12

  20. T9

    Nolan Hoffman pitches to Randy Arozarena

    · ·

    SEA 7·PHI 12

  21. T9

    · ·

    SEA 6·PHI 12

  22. T9

    Young grounded out to second, Garver scored, Crawford to third.

    · ·

    SEA 6·PHI 12

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 6·PHI 12

  24. T9

    Nolan Hoffman pitches to Cole Young

    · ·

    SEA 6·PHI 12

  25. T9

    · ·

    SEA 5·PHI 12

  26. T9

    Crawford doubled to right, Garver to third.

    · ·

    SEA 5·PHI 12

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 5·PHI 12

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 5·PHI 12

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 5·PHI 12

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 5·PHI 12

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

7

Runs

12

9

Hits

22

0

Errors

0

18

TB

37

2

HR

4

1

BB

2

14

K

4

8

LOB

19

Player projections

PHI vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    54.6%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.5%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 23, 25sim 94
    29
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 93
    710
    6(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 92
    2212
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 89
    122
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 89
    191
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 89
    214
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs