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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ARI
ARI

ARI

75-75

6
4
MIN

MIN

65-84

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
18,376 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 6 · MIN 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0103001106
MIN0200011004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    257
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    186
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    214
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 95
    78
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    295
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 94
    183
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 14·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
James McCann

James McCann

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Mickey Gasper

Mickey Gasper

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI75-75
6
4
MIN65-84
ARI75-75·MIN65-84
ARI

ARI

75-75

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44010010
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-55010001
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-44110011
SPRINT29.496
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-11100001
J. LawlarJ. Lawlar★LF
1-33110002
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
2-33221001
SPRINT27.867
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
2-44124102
SPRINT25.29
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
0-44000002
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
1-44011002
SPRINT27.662
I. VargasI. Vargas1B
1-33010001
Team10-353561061213
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CrismattN. Crismatt★SP
5.0320040
A. DeSclafaniA. DeSclafaniRP
2.2322132
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
0.1000000
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.2100010
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
0.1000100
Team9.0742282
MIN

MIN

65-84

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-55000002
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-55010002
SPRINT27.867
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44010010
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-33010001
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-55111101
SPRINT2622
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.251
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-33000011
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
1-33211100
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT26.225
CC. McCuskerLF
0-11000000
Team7-3737473228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
6.0444091
G. CabreraG. CabreraRP
0.2211120
M. TonkinM. TonkinRP
1.1211010
T. HatchT. HatchRP
1.0200110
Team9.010662131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • N. Crismatt
    83 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      42%·81.3 mph·35% whiff
    • FF
      30%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·74.1 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      1%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. DeSclafani
    59 pitches·22% CSW
    • FS
      34%·82.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      19%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      73%·89.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      27%·77.8 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Backhus
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      69%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·77.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·73.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Beeks
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·86.6 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • B. Ober
    101 pitches·30% CSW
    • CH
      31%·83.5 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      26%·90.0 mph·15% whiff
    • ST
      19%·78.5 mph·58% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.6 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      7%·90.3 mph·17% whiff
  • G. Cabrera
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      32%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·90.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      23%·85.4 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·96.4 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Tonkin
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      68%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      16%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hatch
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      29%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.4 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

6

Runs

4

3

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 13ARIARI8@MINMIN9
Sep 13ARIARI5@MINMIN2
Sep 14ARIARI6@MINMIN4today

Season series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 13ARIARI8@MINMIN9
Sep 13ARIARI5@MINMIN2
Sep 14ARIARI6@MINMIN4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 32pp · Top 4th Inning

ARIARI
J. McCann

J. McCann

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. Crismatt

N. Crismatt

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H

MINMIN
M. Gasper

M. Gasper

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

B. Ober

B. Ober

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 4 ER · 4 H

How it ended

ARI beat MIN 6-4. McCann's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 4th Inning · 4-2
+32pp→ 72% WP

McCann · homered to left center (407 feet), Alexander scored and Lawlar scored.

MINBottom 7th Inning · 5-4
+19pp→ 38% WP

Gasper · homered to right (356 feet).

ARIBottom 9th Inning · 6-4
+18pp→ 100% WP

Wallner · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0103001106
MIN0200011004

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · MIN won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
2

Inn 2

McCann 1

Julien 1

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

McCann 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Wallner 1

1
1

Inn 7

Tawa 1

Gasper 1

1
0

Inn 8

Thomas 1

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
MIN

Play-by-play · 637 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  3. B9

    Wallner flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

    −18pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  10. B9

    Kyle Backhus pitches to Matt Wallner

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  11. B9

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  12. B9

    Keaschall hit by pitch, Outman to second, Martin to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

    +7pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  15. B9

    Kyle Backhus pitches to Luke Keaschall

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  16. B9

    Outman ran for Clemens

    ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  17. B9

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  18. B9

    Clemens walked, Martin to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

    +5pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  24. B9

    Kyle Backhus pitches to Kody Clemens

    · ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  25. B9

    Backhus relieved Thompson

    ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  26. B9

    ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  27. B9

    Martin singled to right.

    ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

    +4pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 6·MIN 4

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

6

Runs

4

10

Hits

7

3

Errors

0

16

TB

13

1

HR

2

2

BB

2

13

K

8

13

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

MIN vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.7± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    44.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.3%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.2%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.