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  • WNBA8:12 - 2nd
    SEA 18@TOR 23
    +9.9ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ATL
CHW

CHW

45-82

0
1
ATL

ATL

58-69

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
30,054 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

CHW 0 · ATL 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
ATL000100001

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    200
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 93
    150
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 92
    41
    3(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 92
    200
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 91
    203
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 91
    91
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 20·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Chicago White Sox, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Curtis Mead

Curtis Mead

1B

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Nacho Alvarez Jr.

Nacho Alvarez Jr.

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW45-82
0
1
ATL58-69
CHW45-82·ATL58-69
CHW

CHW

45-82

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
1-44010000
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT28.381
K. TeelK. Teel★C
0-22000011
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
0-33000002
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-33000001
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT2993
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33000002
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-33010001
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-22010001
SPRINT26.838
E. QueroE. QueroC
0-11000000
Team4-2828040019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. PerezM. Perez★SP
5.1310050
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
0.2000010
M. VasilM. VasilRP
1.2100010
B. EisertB. EisertRP
0.1000000
Team8.0410070
ATL

ATL

58-69

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-44000001
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.838
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-33110001
SPRINT25.614
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33000001
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-33000000
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
0-33000001
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
2-33020000
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-33000001
Team4-2929140007
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. WaldrepH. Waldrep★SP
7.0400170
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0000010
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000010
Team9.0400190

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • M. Perez
    74 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      42%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·82.8 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      18%·86.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      11%·76.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Vasil
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      42%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      16%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.0 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      71%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      33%·83.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      17%·81.2 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • H. Waldrep
    87 pitches·30% CSW
    • FS
      40%·86.4 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      21%·82.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      15%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      2%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      88%·85.3 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

0

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Aug 18CHWCHW13@ATLATL9
Aug 19CHWCHW10@ATLATL11
Aug 20CHWCHW0@ATLATL1today

Season series

ATL wins series 2-1

Aug 18CHWCHW13@ATLATL9
Aug 19CHWCHW10@ATLATL11
Aug 20CHWCHW0@ATLATL1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CHWCHW
C. Mead

C. Mead

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

M. Perez

M. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H

ATLATL
N. Alvarez Jr.

N. Alvarez Jr.

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

H. Waldrep

H. Waldrep

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat CHW 1-0.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 57% WP

Vargas · grounded into double play, second to first, Tauchman out at second.

ATLBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 64% WP

Alvarez Jr. · reached on infield single to shortstop.

ATLBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 71% WP

Ozuna · scored on error, Albies safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Montgomery.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000000000
ATL00010000—1

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

0

Runs

1

4

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

4

TB

5

0

HR

0

1

BB

0

9

K

7

6

LOB

9

Win probability

ATL vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

CHW won 0 · ATL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Ozuna 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHW
ATL

Play-by-play · 431 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  2. T9

    Vargas struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  6. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  7. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  8. T9

    Tauchman flied out to right.

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

    +4pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  10. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Mike Tauchman

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  11. T9

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  12. T9

    Quero grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

    +3pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  17. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Edgar Quero

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  18. T9

    Iglesias relieved Johnson

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  19. T9

    Quero hit for Mead

    ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  22. B8

    · ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  23. B8

    Olson lined out to center.

    · ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  24. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  25. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  26. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

  30. B8

    Brandon Eisert pitches to Matt Olson

    · ·

    CHW 0·ATL 1

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 10 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

ATL vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    60.2%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.0%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.2%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.