MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1KC

ATL

45-62

54-55

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

17,726 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.1%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
59.9%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.6%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.1%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low
Bryce ElderATL
4.6± 3.0medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.2high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.2± 1.4high
Kameron MisnerKC
1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

Drake BaldwinATL
2.2± 2.0high
Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

Drake BaldwinATL
0.8± 0.8high
Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.0medium
Noah CameronKC
2.5± 2.3low
Bryce ElderATL
2.4± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

.744

OPS

◀

.717

.695

.320

OBP

.319

.317

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

3.29

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.51

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

ATL 0 · KC 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ProfarLF	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.264	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.231	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. OzunaDH	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Albies2B	.221	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. MurphyC	.226	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
E. WhiteCF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. AllenSS	.228	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. KelenicRF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BaldwinC	.280	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. WilliamsSS	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	0	5	0	0	1	10

Player

.245

.261

.264

.231

.233

.221

.226

.250

.228

.167

.280

.100

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WentzRP	6.2	1	0	0	3	7	95
P. JohnsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
D. LeeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
D. HernandezRP	0.0	1	1	0	0	0	2
Team	9.0	3	1	0	3	9	129

Player

6.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

0.0

Team

9.0

129

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.301	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.288	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
V. Pasquantino1B	.266	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. PerezC	.254	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. GrichukRF	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
F. FerminC	.255	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.208	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.247	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. MelendezDH	.083	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	1	3	1	0	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ZerpaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
J. BowlanRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	3	33
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
H. HarveyRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	16
S. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
L. ErcegRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	22
C. EstevezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
S. LongRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
Team	10.0	5	0	0	1	10	157

Team

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.