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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

64-92

3
2
NYM

NYM

80-76

Citi Field · Queens, New York
42,960 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 3 · NYM 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0300000003
NYM0010010002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 21·Final/SeriesNYM win series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into New York Mets and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Starling Marte

Starling Marte

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH64-92
3
2
NYM80-76
WSH64-92·NYM80-76
WSH

WSH

64-92

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.457
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-44010000
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-33010001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-11110000
SPRINT29.395
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
0-44000002
J. AlfaroJ. Alfaro★C
2-44120001
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44000001
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
2-44122101
SPRINT29.899
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33010001
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro1B
0-11000001
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell IIICF
0-33000002
Team9-35353921012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
5.1622251
M. ParkerM. ParkerRP
3.2200020
Team9.0822271
NYM

NYM

80-76

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-22010020
SPRINT25.513
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44010000
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-44020001
SPRINT25.29
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-44000001
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-33000002
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-44000000
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-44110002
SPRINT26.428
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-22011000
SPRINT27.662
F. AlvarezF. AlvarezC
0-11000000
S. MarteS. MarteRF
1-11010000
Team8-3333282127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ManaeaS. Manaea★RP
3.0433031
C. HolmesC. HolmesSP
3.2400030
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.1000010
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0100020
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0000030
Team9.09330121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    93 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      37%·93.1 mph·6% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      27%·79.0 mph·27% whiff
    • FC
      2%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Parker
    53 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      58%·94.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      23%·80.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      19%·84.1 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    57 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      58%·94.3 mph·32% whiff
    • ST
      23%·82.9 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      16%·89.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      2%·90.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      2%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Manaea
    50 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      64%·92.2 mph·23% whiff
    • ST
      34%·75.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      2%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Soto
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      53%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      41%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.3 mph·— whiff
  • E. Diaz
    15 pitches·60% CSW
    • FF
      73%·97.5 mph·86% whiff
    • SL
      27%·89.9 mph·67% whiff
  • B. Raley
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      100%·81.0 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

NYM win series 4-2

Jun 10WSHWSH4@NYMNYM5
Jun 11WSHWSH0@NYMNYM5
Jun 12WSHWSH3@NYMNYM4
Sep 19WSHWSH6@NYMNYM12
Sep 20WSHWSH5@NYMNYM3
Sep 21WSHWSH3@NYMNYM2today

Season series

NYM win series 7-6

Apr 25NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Apr 26NYMNYM2@WSHWSH0
Apr 27NYMNYM7@WSHWSH8
Apr 28NYMNYM19@WSHWSH5
Jun 10WSHWSH4@NYMNYM5
Jun 11WSHWSH0@NYMNYM5
Jun 12WSHWSH3@NYMNYM4
Aug 19NYMNYM8@WSHWSH1
Aug 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Aug 21NYMNYM3@WSHWSH9
Sep 19WSHWSH6@NYMNYM12
Sep 20WSHWSH5@NYMNYM3
Sep 21WSHWSH3@NYMNYM2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 6th Inning

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
S. Marte

S. Marte

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

WSH beat NYM 3-2. Lindor's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+20pp→ 61% WP

Nuñez homered to left center (374 feet), Alfaro scored.

NYMBottom 6th Inning · 3-2
+20pp→ 55% WP

Lindor · homered to right (388 feet).

WSHTop 8th Inning · 3-2
+11pp→ 70% WP

Crews · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0300000003
NYM0010010002

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · NYM won 2

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Alfaro 1

0
1

Inn 3

Mullins 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Lindor 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
NYM

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  2. B9

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  3. B9

    Torrens lined out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  7. B9

    Mitchell Parker pitches to Luis Torrens

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  8. B9

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  9. B9

    Baty flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

    −9pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  12. B9

    Mitchell Parker pitches to Brett Baty

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  13. B9

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  14. B9

    Alvarez lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

    −11pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  19. B9

    Mitchell Parker pitches to Francisco Alvarez

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  20. B9

    Alvarez hit for Vientos

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  23. T9

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  24. T9

    Nuñez struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

    +0.6pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  28. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Nasim Nunez

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  29. T9

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

  30. T9

    House struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 3·NYM 2

    +1pp

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

3

Runs

2

9

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

14

TB

13

1

HR

1

0

BB

2

12

K

7

16

LOB

10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    200
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 94
    205
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 94
    202
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    204
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 93
    92
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 92
    208
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

NYM vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    61.2%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.3%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.3%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.