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FINAL+5SF
WSH

WSH

45-70

0
5
SF

SF

59-57

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
38,679 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

WSH 0 · SF 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000000000
SF200002015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 8·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Washington Nationals, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH45-70
0
5
SF59-57
WSH45-70·SF59-57
WSH

WSH

45-70

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT28.483
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44000002
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-44000002
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-22010011
SPRINT25.18
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-33010000
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-33010000
SPRINT27.354
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-33000001
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-22000000
Team4-2929040027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
5.1843032
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
2.1211210
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
0.1000000
Team8.01054242
SF

SF

59-57

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000011
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-33111110
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-44110001
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
2-44020000
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT28.175
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-44210000
SPRINT27.148
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44112100
SPRINT2872
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
2-44021001
SPRINT24.32
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-44000001
Team10-35355105224
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GageM. Gage★RP
1.0000010
K. TengK. TengRP
5.0300140
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.0100000
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
1.0000120
T. BeckT. BeckRP
1.0000000
Team9.0400270

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SF

  • M. Gage
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      48%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.3 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

10

0

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Aug 9WSHWSH0@SFSF5today
Aug 9WSHWSH4@SFSF2
Aug 10WSHWSH8@SFSF0

Season series

SF leads series 3-1

May 23SFSF4@WSHWSH0
May 24SFSF0@WSHWSH3
May 25SFSF3@WSHWSH2
Aug 9WSHWSH0@SFSF5today
Aug 9WSHWSH4@SFSF2
Aug 10WSHWSH8@SFSF0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 5th Inning

WSHWSH
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 8 H

SFSF
R. Devers

R. Devers

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

K. Teng

K. Teng

RP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SF beat WSH 5-0.

Win probability

SF vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 72% WP

Devers · homered to center (427 feet).

SFBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 82% WP

Chapman · singled to center, Adames scored, Smith to second.

SFTop 5th Inning · 0-2
+15pp→ 87% WP

Young · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tena out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000000000
SF20000201—5

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · SF won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Schmitt 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Bailey 1

0

Inn 9

WSH
SF

Play-by-play · 517 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  2. T9

    Lowe lined out to right.

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  5. T9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Nathaniel Lowe

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  6. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  7. T9

    House flied out to right.

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  12. T9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Brady House

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  13. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  14. T9

    Abrams lined out to right.

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  17. T9

    Tristan Beck pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  18. T9

    Beck relieved Buttó

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 0·SF 5

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    WSH 0·SF 5

  21. B8

    · ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  22. B8

    Ramos flied out to second.

    · ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  23. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  24. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  25. B8

    Orlando Ribalta pitches to Heliot Ramos

    · ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  26. B8

    Ribalta relieved Ogasawara

    ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  27. B8

    · ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  28. B8

    Gilbert fouled out to third.

    · ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 0·SF 5

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

SF

Home

0

Runs

5

4

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

5

TB

19

0

HR

2

2

BB

2

7

K

4

11

LOB

17

Player projections

SF vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    61.1%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.1%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.0%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 97
    204
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    208
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    203
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 92
    40
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 91
    200
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 91
    207
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs