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FINAL+1KC
MIN

MIN

62-79

1
2
KC

KC

72-69

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
16,255 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

MIN 1 · KC 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0000100001
KC002000002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesKC wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Minnesota Twins, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Jhonny Pereda

Jhonny Pereda

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN62-79
1
2
KC72-69
MIN62-79·KC72-69
MIN

MIN

62-79

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-44000001
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.632
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.688
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-33000010
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.867
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-44000001
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-33000011
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-33110011
SPRINT26.428
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
1-22011010
M. GasperM. GasperC
0-11000000
Team5-3232151046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. LopezP. Lopez★SP
6.0622141
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
1.0000020
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0000000
Team8.0622161
KC

KC

72-69

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-44000001
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-33000001
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44122100
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000000
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT26.225
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-33000001
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-22000011
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.941
N. LoftinN. Loftin2B
0-11000000
Team6-3131262116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
5.2411250
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0000100
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.1000010
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
0.2100000
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
0.1000000
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0000100
Team9.0511460

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • P. Lopez
    92 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.3 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      32%·84.7 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      16%·87.8 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      14%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • ST
      53%·83.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      47%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Topa
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      54%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·92.1 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    83 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      29%·93.3 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      22%·84.9 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      17%·79.8 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·76.0 mph·67% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      74%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      64%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      17%·88.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      17%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      60%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·84.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Clarke
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      67%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

6

1

Runs

2

2

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 5-2

Apr 7MINMIN2@KCKC4
Apr 8MINMIN1@KCKC2
Apr 9MINMIN4@KCKC0
Apr 10MINMIN2@KCKC3
Sep 5MINMIN1@KCKC2today
Sep 6MINMIN2@KCKC11
Sep 7MINMIN5@KCKC1

Season series

KC leads series 6-5

Apr 7MINMIN2@KCKC4
Apr 8MINMIN1@KCKC2
Apr 9MINMIN4@KCKC0
Apr 10MINMIN2@KCKC3
May 24KCKC1@MINMIN3
May 24KCKC4@MINMIN5
May 25KCKC2@MINMIN1
Aug 9KCKC4@MINMIN9
Aug 9KCKC2@MINMIN0
Aug 10KCKC3@MINMIN5
Sep 5MINMIN1@KCKC2today
Sep 6MINMIN2@KCKC11
Sep 7MINMIN5@KCKC1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

MINMIN
J. Pereda

J. Pereda

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

P. Lopez

P. Lopez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat MIN 2-1. Garcia's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

KC vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+22pp→ 77% WP

Garcia · homered to left (412 feet), Pasquantino scored.

MINTop 5th Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 36% WP

Pereda · doubled to right, Lee scored.

MINTop 8th Inning · 1-2
+11pp→ 32% WP

Larnach · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0000100001
KC00200000—2

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · KC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Garcia 2

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Pereda 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIN
KC

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  2. T9

    Gasper lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

    +6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  9. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Mickey Gasper

    · ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  10. T9

    Gasper hit for Pereda

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  11. T9

    Fitzgerald ran for Lee

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  12. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  13. T9

    Lee walked.

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

    −4pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  18. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Brooks Lee

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  19. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  20. T9

    Lewis flied out to center.

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

    +5pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  23. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  24. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  25. T9

    Wallner flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

    +7pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·KC 2

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

KC

Home

1

Runs

2

5

Hits

6

2

Errors

0

8

TB

10

0

HR

1

4

BB

1

6

K

6

12

LOB

12

Player projections

KC vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.1%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    63.1%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.1%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 23, 25sim 95
    202
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 94
    41
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 94
    94
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 93
    92
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 93
    95
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 92
    42
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs