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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHW
CHW

CHW

42-69

1
0
LAA

LAA

53-58

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
39,161 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 1 · LAA 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAA +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0100000001
LAA0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    150
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 94
    200
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 92
    40
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 92
    291
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 91
    92
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 91
    297
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 2·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Brooks Baldwin

Brooks Baldwin

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Zach Neto

Zach Neto

SS

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW42-69
1
0
LAA53-58
CHW42-69·LAA53-58
CHW

CHW

42-69

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
1-44010001
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.941
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-44000002
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT2993
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000002
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-33011011
C. JulksC. Julks★LF
0-33000001
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
2-22020010
J. RojasJ. Rojas★3B
0-22000010
Team6-3030161037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. CivaleA. Civale★SP
6.1100280
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.2000010
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0000000
Team9.0100290
LAA

LAA

53-58

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT27.148
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-33000010
SPRINT25.920
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-44000002
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-33000002
SPRINT27.867
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-22000001
SPRINT26.735
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33000001
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-22000011
G. CamperoG. Campero★OF
0-33000001
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-22000000
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
0-11000000
T. d'ArnaudT. d'ArnaudC
0-11000000
Team1-2828010029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HendricksK. Hendricks★SP
5.0411220
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0000010
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0100110
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
1.0100010
C. FulmerC. FulmerRP
1.0000020
Team9.0611370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAA

  • R. Detmers
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      45%·89.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      36%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      18%·76.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

1

1

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Aug 2CHWCHW6@LAALAA3
Aug 3CHWCHW1@LAALAA0today
Aug 3CHWCHW5@LAALAA8

Season series

CHW lead series 3-2

Mar 27LAALAA1@CHWCHW8
Mar 29LAALAA1@CHWCHW0
Mar 30LAALAA3@CHWCHW2
Aug 2CHWCHW6@LAALAA3
Aug 3CHWCHW1@LAALAA0today
Aug 3CHWCHW5@LAALAA8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 5th Inning

CHWCHW
B. Baldwin

B. Baldwin

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
Z. Neto

Z. Neto

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 0.500 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat LAA 1-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 46% WP

Benintendi · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Sosa out at second.

CHWTop 5th Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 65% WP

Baldwin · walked.

CHWBottom 9th Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 87% WP

Neto · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0100000001
LAA0000000000

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · LAA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Teel 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
LAA

Play-by-play · 484 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  2. B9

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  3. B9

    Ward flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  8. B9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Taylor Ward

    · ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  9. B9

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  10. B9

    Schanuel lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

    −7pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  12. B9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  13. B9

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  14. B9

    Neto grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

    −9pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  19. B9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Zach Neto

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  20. B9

    Leasure relieved Eisert

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  21. B9

    M. Taylor in left field.

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  24. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  25. T9

    Teel struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

    +0.9pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

  30. T9

    Carson Fulmer pitches to Kyle Teel

    ·

    CHW 1·LAA 0

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

1

Runs

0

6

Hits

1

0

Errors

0

6

TB

1

0

HR

0

3

BB

2

7

K

9

11

LOB

8

Player projections

LAA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · LAA favored

  • Elo Static

    57.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.1%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.0%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278