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  • WNBA8:12 - 2nd
    SEA 18@TOR 23
    +9.9ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIN
WSH

WSH

41-62

0
1
MIN

MIN

50-53

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
27,736 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

WSH 0 · MIN 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000000000
MIN000010001

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 20, 25sim 97
    40
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 95
    150
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 94
    41
    3(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 91
    200
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 90
    207
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 90
    41
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Jul 25·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Washington Nationals, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa

SS

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH41-62
0
1
MIN50-53
WSH41-62·MIN50-53
WSH

WSH

41-62

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000003
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.735
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-44000000
SPRINT25.18
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-33000002
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33000002
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-33020000
SPRINT29.395
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-33000001
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-22000010
Team3-30300300110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
5.0111640
C. HenryC. HenryRP
0.2200010
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
0.1000000
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0000010
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000010
Team8.0311670
MIN

MIN

50-53

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-33001002
SPRINT29.597
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-44010001
SPRINT26.326
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-44000002
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-33010011
SPRINT27.251
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.251
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-11000021
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-11000010
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-22100010
SPRINT2622
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-22000010
Team3-2424131067
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. MatthewsZ. Matthews★SP
6.0200070
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
1.0000000
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0100120
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000010
Team9.03001100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • L. Garcia
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      55%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      45%·91.2 mph·33% whiff

MIN

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

3

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Jul 26WSHWSH0@MINMIN1today
Jul 26WSHWSH9@MINMIN3
Jul 27WSHWSH7@MINMIN2

Season series

MIN leads series 1-0

Jul 26WSHWSH0@MINMIN1today
Jul 26WSHWSH9@MINMIN3
Jul 27WSHWSH7@MINMIN2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 8th Inning

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 6 BB

MINMIN
C. Correa

C. Correa

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

Z. Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

MIN beat WSH 1-0.

Win probability

MIN vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 70% WP

Lee · walked, Wallner to third on wild pitch by Gore.

WSHTop 8th Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 23% WP

Lile · doubled to right.

MINTop 8th Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 88% WP

Abrams · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000000000
MIN00001000—1

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · MIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Buxton 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

WSH
MIN

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  2. T9

    Bell grounded out to third.

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  4. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Josh Bell

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  5. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  6. T9

    García Jr. grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

    +6pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  8. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    · ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  9. T9

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  10. T9

    Wood struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

    +7pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  15. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to James Wood

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  16. T9

    Duran relieved Jax

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  17. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  18. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  19. B8

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  20. B8

    Lewis grounded out to second.

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

    −1pp

  21. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  22. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  23. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  24. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  25. B8

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  26. B8

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  27. B8

    Correa struck out looking.

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

    −2pp

  28. B8

    Pitch 10 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  29. B8

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

  30. B8

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 0·MIN 1

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

0

Runs

1

3

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

5

TB

4

0

HR

0

1

BB

6

10

K

7

5

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIN vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    59.9%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.2%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.