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FINAL+4BOS
HOU

HOU

62-49

3
7
BOS

BOS

61-51

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,215 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

HOU 3 · BOS 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU2000100003
BOS103200107

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 98
    124
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 98
    198
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    181
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    122
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 94
    105
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 94
    104
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 2·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Houston Astros, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Trevor Story

Trevor Story

SS

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU62-49
3
7
BOS61-51
HOU62-49·BOS61-51
HOU

HOU

62-49

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-55010001
SPRINT27.867
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-44000010
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-44220011
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-33122120
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-55021000
SPRINT25.513
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
4-55040001
SPRINT24.22
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-55000002
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
1-11010010
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-33010011
M. DubonM. DubonSS
1-33010000
Team14-38383143166
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
CC. Gordon★SP
4.0766163
K. OrtK. OrtRP
0.2000120
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.1000030
H. NerisH. NerisRP
1.0211010
N. HernandezN. HernandezRP
1.0100000
Team8.010772123
BOS

BOS

61-51

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
2-55221101
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000002
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-33010012
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
2-44221002
SPRINT26.326
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-33123101
SPRINT27.969
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-33000011
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44000001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-44120002
SPRINT28.790
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
1-44112100
Team10-343471073212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
4.1933301
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
0.2000020
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0000110
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0200000
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.0200120
J. AlcalaJ. AlcalaRP
0.1100100
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
0.2000010
Team9.01433661

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • C. Gordon
    81 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      38%·91.5 mph·6% whiff
    • ST
      37%·81.3 mph·24% whiff
    • CU
      12%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·91.6 mph·— whiff
  • H. Neris
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      45%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      35%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.7 mph·— whiff
  • K. Ort
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      71%·97.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      29%·91.1 mph·— whiff
  • S. Okert
    14 pitches·64% CSW
    • SL
      86%·81.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      14%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • N. Hernandez
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      56%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·82.6 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • W. Buehler
    84 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      29%·86.2 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      14%·77.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      4%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      70%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      13%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      50%·83.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      31%·84.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.5 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      42%·100.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      25%·99.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      25%·91.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Matz
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      64%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      36%·79.5 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Alcala
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·97.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Wilson
    10 pitches·60% CSW
    • SL
      70%·87.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.4 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      10%·85.5 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

10

3

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 3-0

Aug 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS2
Aug 2HOUHOU3@BOSBOS7today
Aug 3HOUHOU1@BOSBOS6

Season series

BOS leads series 2-0

Aug 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS2
Aug 2HOUHOU3@BOSBOS7today
Aug 3HOUHOU1@BOSBOS6
Aug 12BOSBOS6@HOUHOU7
Aug 13BOSBOS14@HOUHOU1
Aug 13BOSBOS1@HOUHOU4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

C. Gordon

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
T. Story

T. Story

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 ER · 9 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BOS beat HOU 7-3. Story's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

BOS vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 58% WP

Walker · homered to left center (433 feet), Correa scored.

BOSBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 59% WP

Gonz · ález hit a ground rule double.

BOSBottom 3rd Inning · 2-4
+20pp→ 78% WP

Story · homered to left (368 feet), Refsnyder scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU2000100003
BOS10320010—7

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · BOS won 3

2
1

Inn 1

Walker 2

Gonz 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Story 2

0
2

Inn 4

Toro 2

1
0

Inn 5

Diaz 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Story 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
BOS

Play-by-play · 601 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  2. T9

    Dubón grounded out to second.

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

    +0.8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  4. T9

    Caratini to second on wild pitch by Chapman, Walker to third on wild pitch by Chapman.

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  5. T9

    Caratini to second on wild pitch by Chapman, Walker to third on wild pitch by Chapman.

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  11. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  12. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  13. T9

    Smith struck out swinging.

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

    +2pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  20. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Cam Smith

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  21. T9

    Chapman relieved Alcala

    ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  22. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  23. T9

    Caratini singled to center, Walker to second.

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

    −2pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  29. T9

    Jorge Alcala pitches to Victor Caratini

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

  30. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 7

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

3

Runs

7

14

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

17

TB

24

1

HR

3

6

BB

2

6

K

12

26

LOB

12

Player projections

BOS vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    56.4%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790