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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1DET
HOU

HOU

69-57

0
1
DET

DET

75-53

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
30,770 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

HOU 0 · DET 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
HOU00000000000
DET00000000011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    100
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    60
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    100
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 93
    170
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 91
    103
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 91
    72
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 19·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Houston Astros, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena

SS

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Gleyber Torres

Gleyber Torres

2B

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
HOU69-57
0
1
DET75-53
HOU69-57·DET75-53
HOU

HOU

69-57

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-33010010
SPRINT28.483
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000002
SPRINT27.867
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44000001
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44010001
SPRINT25.513
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-33010002
SPRINT26.735
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-22000001
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-22000001
C. McCormickC. McCormick★LF
0-11000011
V. CaratiniV. CaratiniC
0-11000001
J. SanchezJ. SanchezRF
0-11000000
J. MeltonJ. MeltonLF
0-11000001
T. TrammellT. TrammellCF
0-11000000
Team4-31310400212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. BrownH. Brown★SP
6.0500360
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0000000
B. SousaB. SousaRP
1.0000020
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0000000
K. OrtK. OrtRP
0.2010310
Team9.2510690
DET

DET

75-53

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-22000012
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-44021011
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-44000000
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-22000021
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000000
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.969
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-22010001
SPRINT26.941
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33000011
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
1-22010001
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-11000010
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-22000000
J. BaezJ. BaezSS
0-22000002
Team5-3232151069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
7.03002100
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0000010
W. VestW. VestRP
2.0100010
Team10.04002120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • H. Brown
    101 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.8 mph·11% whiff
    • KC
      25%·82.0 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      16%·87.2 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      9%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Abreu
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      44%·85.7 mph·17% whiff
  • K. Ort
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      75%·85.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. King
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Sousa
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • SL
      73%·84.7 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·85.8 mph·100% whiff

DET

  • T. Skubal
    95 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      36%·87.1 mph·55% whiff
    • FF
      36%·97.4 mph·35% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·90.5 mph·75% whiff
  • W. Vest
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      42%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      56%·88.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      44%·96.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

5

0

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Aug 18HOUHOU0@DETDET10
Aug 19HOUHOU0@DETDET1today
Aug 20HOUHOU2@DETDET7

Season series

DET leads series 3-2

Apr 29DETDET5@HOUHOU8
Apr 30DETDET4@HOUHOU6
Apr 30DETDET7@HOUHOU4
Aug 18HOUHOU0@DETDET10
Aug 19HOUHOU0@DETDET1today
Aug 20HOUHOU2@DETDET7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 34pp · Bottom 10th Inning

HOUHOU
J. Pena

J. Pena

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

H. Brown

H. Brown

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

DETDET
G. Torres

G. Torres

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.100 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

DET beat HOU 1-0. Torres's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Win probability

DET vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 39% WP

Altuve · struck out swinging.

DETBottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 72% WP

McKinstry · tripled to center.

DETBottom 10th Inning · 0-1
+34pp→ 100% WP

Torres · walked, Pérez scored, Jones to second, Dingler to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
HOU00000000000
DET00000000011

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · DET won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
1

Inn 10

Torres 1

HOU
DET

Play-by-play · 581 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 1

  2. B10

    Torres walked, Pérez scored, Jones to second, Dingler to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 1

    +34pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 1

  4. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  5. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  6. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  7. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  8. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  9. B10

    Kaleb Ort pitches to Gleyber Torres

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 1

  10. B10

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  11. B10

    Jones walked.

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

    +2pp

  12. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  13. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  14. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  15. B10

    Dingler to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  16. B10

    Dingler to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  17. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  18. B10

    Kaleb Ort pitches to Jahmai Jones

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  19. B10

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  20. B10

    Báez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

    −17pp

  21. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  22. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  23. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  24. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  25. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  26. B10

    Kaleb Ort pitches to Javier Baez

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  27. B10

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  28. B10

    Dingler intentionally walked.

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

    −1pp

  29. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

  30. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 0

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

DET

Home

0

Runs

1

4

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

5

TB

7

0

HR

0

2

BB

6

12

K

9

8

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.4± 2.7low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.7medium
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.4± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.1± 3.0high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    55.1%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.3%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.7%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.