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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYY
NYY

NYY

61-54

3
2
TEX

TEX

60-56

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
35,565 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 3 · TEX 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0002001003
TEX0010100002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt

1B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Ezequiel Duran

Ezequiel Duran

2B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY61-54
3
2
TEX60-56
NYY61-54·TEX60-56
NYY

NYY

61-54

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44010011
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44010012
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-22100020
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-44000001
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
0-22100020
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44011000
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-11010010
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-22000000
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
0-11000000
J. CaballeroJ. CaballeroSS
0-11000000
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
1-22111100
SPRINT24.74
Team6-3030362185
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
5.0622430
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0000000
T. HillT. HillRP
0.2100010
Y. De los SantosY. De los SantosRP
0.2000100
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.2100250
Team9.0822790
TEX

TEX

60-56

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
1-33011012
SPRINT28.278
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-33020021
SPRINT24.96
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-33011010
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-55000002
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-22000020
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-33000001
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-44010001
SPRINT23.91
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-44000001
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
3-33230000
SPRINT28.891
R. TellezR. Tellez1B
0-11000001
Team8-3131282079
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
3.1321430
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
2.2000110
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.2211011
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
0.1100100
C. WinnC. WinnRP
2.0000200
Team9.0632851

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    93 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.4 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.2 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·80.3 mph·— whiff
  • D. Bednar
    42 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      31%·77.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      31%·91.4 mph·60% whiff
  • Y. De los Santos
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      64%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      90%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      10%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      38%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·73.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.7 mph·— whiff

TEX

  • J. Leiter
    68 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      32%·96.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      25%·89.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·81.3 mph·25% whiff
  • H. Milner
    33 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      42%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·77.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      12%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·79.5 mph·— whiff
  • C. Winn
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      32%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      16%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      31%·94.3 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      31%·83.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      19%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      43%·89.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      36%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

3

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Aug 5NYYNYY5@TEXTEX8
Aug 6NYYNYY0@TEXTEX2
Aug 6NYYNYY3@TEXTEX2today

Season series

NYY win series 4-2

May 20TEXTEX2@NYYNYY5
May 21TEXTEX3@NYYNYY4
May 22TEXTEX0@NYYNYY1
Aug 5NYYNYY5@TEXTEX8
Aug 6NYYNYY0@TEXTEX2
Aug 6NYYNYY3@TEXTEX2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 7th Inning

NYYNYY
P. Goldschmidt

P. Goldschmidt

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

TEXTEX
E. Duran

E. Duran

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

NYY beat TEX 3-2. Goldschmidt's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 7th Inning · 3-2
+22pp→ 67% WP

Goldschmidt · homered to left (395 feet).

NYYTop 8th Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 78% WP

Dom · ínguez walked.

NYYBottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 100% WP

A. Garc · ía struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0002001003
TEX0010100002

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · TEX won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Haggerty 1

2
0

Inn 4

Volpe 1

0
1

Inn 5

Semien 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Goldschmidt 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYY
TEX

Play-by-play · 606 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  3. B9

    A. García struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

    −19pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  11. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Adolis Garcia

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  12. B9

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  13. B9

    Semien singled to right, Seager to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

    +6pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  19. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Marcus Semien

    · ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  20. B9

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  21. B9

    Seager walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

    +8pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  28. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Corey Seager

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  29. B9

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

  30. B9

    Haggerty struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 3·TEX 2

    −7pp

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

3

Runs

2

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

9

TB

9

1

HR

0

8

BB

7

5

K

9

18

LOB

20

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.1%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    56.9%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.2%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    302
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 95
    171
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    100
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 94
    173
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    175
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 94
    112
    12(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
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