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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TEX
NYY

NYY

60-54

0
2
TEX

TEX

60-55

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
35,399 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

NYY 0 · TEX 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0000000000
TEX000000022

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 96
    180
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    60
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    103
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    100
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 94
    301
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 93
    112
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 5·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off New York Yankees, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Anthony Volpe

Anthony Volpe

SS

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

DH

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY60-54
0
2
TEX60-55
NYY60-54·TEX60-55
NYY

NYY

60-54

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-33000000
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33000002
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-33000000
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-33000002
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-33000000
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
0-33000002
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT2622
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-22010000
G. StantonG. StantonDH
0-11000000
Team2-2828020007
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
5.0300350
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0200000
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.0100020
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
0.2222200
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
0.1000000
Team8.0822570
TEX

TEX

60-55

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
2-33020011
SPRINT27.354
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-44000002
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
2-44120000
SPRINT26.735
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
2-22120020
SPRINT25.716
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-22000020
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-44012000
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-44000002
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-44000001
Team8-3131282057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. EovaldiN. Eovaldi★SP
8.0100060
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0100010
Team9.0200070

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • M. Leiter Jr.
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      38%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·73.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.7 mph·— whiff

TEX

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

8

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Aug 5NYYNYY5@TEXTEX8
Aug 6NYYNYY0@TEXTEX2today
Aug 6NYYNYY3@TEXTEX2

Season series

NYY lead series 3-2

May 20TEXTEX2@NYYNYY5
May 21TEXTEX3@NYYNYY4
May 22TEXTEX0@NYYNYY1
Aug 5NYYNYY5@TEXTEX8
Aug 6NYYNYY0@TEXTEX2today
Aug 6NYYNYY3@TEXTEX2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 8th Inning

NYYNYY
A. Volpe

A. Volpe

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

TEXTEX
J. Pederson

J. Pederson

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

N. Eovaldi

N. Eovaldi

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H

How it ended

TEX beat NYY 2-0. Tellez's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

TEX vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 6th Inning · 0-0
+13pp→ 44% WP

Langford · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Pederson out at second, A. García to third.

TEXBottom 8th Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 95% WP

Tellez · singled to center, A. García scored and Pederson scored, Langford to second.

TEXTop 9th Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 99% WP

Stanton · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, McMahon out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0000000000
TEX00000002—2

Period scoring

NYY won 0 · TEX won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Tellez 2

0

Inn 9

NYY
TEX

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  2. T9

    Grisham struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  7. T9

    Phil Maton pitches to Trent Grisham

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  8. T9

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  9. T9

    Stanton grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, McMahon out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

    +13pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  13. T9

    Phil Maton pitches to Giancarlo Stanton

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  14. T9

    Stanton hit for Volpe

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  15. T9

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  16. T9

    McMahon singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

    −7pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  19. T9

    Phil Maton pitches to Ryan McMahon

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  20. T9

    Maton relieved Eovaldi

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  23. B8

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  24. B8

    Osuna flied out to center.

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

    −1pp

  25. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  29. B8

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Alejandro Osuna

    · ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

  30. B8

    Leiter Jr. relieved Williams

    ·

    NYY 0·TEX 2

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

0

Runs

2

2

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

3

TB

13

0

HR

0

0

BB

5

7

K

7

2

LOB

23

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    55.9%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.1%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.1%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.