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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TOR
SF

SF

52-48

6
8
TOR

TOR

58-41

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,693 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

SF 6 · TOR 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF1000140006
TOR102041008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 23, 25sim 96
    78
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    79
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    1310
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 94
    712
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 94
    285
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    213
    22(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Jul 20·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off San Francisco Giants, 8–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Andrew Knizner

Andrew Knizner

C

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF52-48
6
8
TOR58-41
SF52-48·TOR58-41
SF

SF

52-48

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-55121001
SPRINT27.148
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-55021001
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44110002
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-44000002
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-44000001
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-44222101
SPRINT28.175
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
2-33120011
SPRINT25.716
B. WiselyB. Wisely★2B
1-44111000
A. KniznerA. Knizner★C
2-22021010
C. SchmittC. SchmittDH
0-11000000
Team12-36366126129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
4.1555532
S. BivensS. BivensRP
1.1333011
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.1100000
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
2.0000030
Team8.0988573
TOR

TOR

58-41

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-55110000
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-44221101
SPRINT25.920
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-33222110
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-44122000
SPRINT25.716
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-33111011
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-44112101
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-00000020
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★3B
0-44000002
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-11000010
N. LukesN. LukesRF
0-22000001
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
0-22000001
Team9-3232898357
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BerriosJ. Berrios★SP
5.2844151
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
0.2200010
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.2000030
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.0000000
Team9.01266291

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • R. Ray
    95 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      36%·92.2 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      29%·84.2 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.4 mph·22% whiff
    • KC
      15%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Bivens
    28 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      32%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·90.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      18%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    23 pitches·48% CSW
    • SI
      65%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      26%·79.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      9%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      75%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·74.5 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • J. Berrios
    89 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      31%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      31%·82.4 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      21%·92.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      40%·94.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      32%·88.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      28%·84.8 mph·40% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    24 pitches·13% CSW
    • CU
      38%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      50%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·90.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      21%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    7 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      71%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

9

6

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 3-0

Jul 18SFSF0@TORTOR4
Jul 19SFSF3@TORTOR6
Jul 20SFSF6@TORTOR8today

Season series

TOR wins series 3-0

Jul 18SFSF0@TORTOR4
Jul 19SFSF3@TORTOR6
Jul 20SFSF6@TORTOR8today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

SFSF
A. Knizner

A. Knizner

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 5 BB

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

J. Berrios

J. Berrios

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat SF 8-6. Bichette's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

TOR vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+21pp→ 78% WP

Bichette · doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Clement scored.

SFTop 5th Inning · 2-3
+13pp→ 38% WP

Knizner · singled to center, Chapman scored, Smith to second.

TORBottom 5th Inning · 2-4
+16pp→ 84% WP

Springer · homered to left (375 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF1000140006
TOR10204100—8

Period scoring

SF won 1 · TOR won 2

1
1

Inn 1

Ramos 1

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Bichette 2

0
0

Inn 4

1
4

Inn 5

Knizner 1

Barger 2

4
1

Inn 6

Chapman 2

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
TOR

Play-by-play · 586 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  2. T9

    Ramos lined out to center.

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  5. T9

    Yariel Rodriguez pitches to Heliot Ramos

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  6. T9

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  7. T9

    Lee grounded out to second.

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

    +2pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  11. T9

    Yariel Rodriguez pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  12. T9

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  13. T9

    Schmitt grounded out to third.

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

    +3pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  16. T9

    Yariel Rodriguez pitches to Casey Schmitt

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  17. T9

    Rodríguez relieved Nance

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  18. T9

    Schmitt hit for Knizner

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 6·TOR 8

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 6·TOR 8

  21. B8

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  22. B8

    Clement flied out to center.

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  23. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  24. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  25. B8

    Joey Lucchesi pitches to Ernie Clement

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  26. B8

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  27. B8

    Loperfido grounded out to second.

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 6·TOR 8

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

6

Runs

8

12

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

18

TB

22

1

HR

3

2

BB

5

9

K

7

16

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TOR vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.3± 2.7low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    61.5%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.1%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.