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FINAL+4TB
LAD

LAD

64-47

0
4
TB

TB

55-57

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

LAD 0 · TB 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000000000
TB102001004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 97
    160
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 97
    162
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    121
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 96
    195
    30(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    193
    30(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 96
    183
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 2·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 4–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD64-47
0
4
TB55-57
LAD64-47·TB55-57
LAD

LAD

64-47

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44000000
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44010003
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
2-44020002
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.381
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-33000001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000001
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-33010002
SPRINT26.941
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
0-33000001
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT26.123
Team6-31310600011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SnellB. Snell★SP
5.0533082
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0311011
A. DiazA. DiazRP
1.0000020
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0000020
Team8.08440133
TB

TB

55-57

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
3-44233201
SPRINT25.716
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000002
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000003
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44111100
SPRINT25.716
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-33010002
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
2-33020000
SPRINT27.251
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
0-33000002
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-33110000
SPRINT27.765
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-33000002
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11000001
Team8-32324843013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
5.1400060
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
0.2200000
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
2.0000020
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000030
Team9.06000110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • B. Snell
    86 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.2 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      24%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      17%·79.0 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      61%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Diaz
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      64%·93.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      36%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Banda
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      55%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      45%·95.7 mph·33% whiff

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    73 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      47%·89.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      1%·89.3 mph·— whiff
  • E. Uceta
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.5 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      36%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    14 pitches·64% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.8 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·95.4 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      80%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

0

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Aug 1LADLAD5@TBTB0
Aug 2LADLAD0@TBTB4today
Aug 3LADLAD3@TBTB0

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 1LADLAD5@TBTB0
Aug 2LADLAD0@TBTB4today
Aug 3LADLAD3@TBTB0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 5 H

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

TB beat LAD 4-0. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 3rd inning (18pp).

Win probability

TB vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 60% WP

Díaz homered to right (326 feet).

TBBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+18pp→ 81% WP

Díaz homered to right (341 feet), Walls scored.

TBBottom 6th Inning · 0-3
+17pp→ 90% WP

B. Lowe · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000000000
TB10200100—4

Period scoring

LAD won 0 · TB won 3

0
1

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Caminero 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAD
TB

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  2. T9

    T. Hernández struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  7. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Teoscar Hernandez

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  8. T9

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  9. T9

    Freeman struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  14. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Freddie Freeman

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  15. T9

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  16. T9

    Ohtani struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

    +0.9pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  23. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  24. T9

    Fairbanks relieved Uceta

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAD 0·TB 4

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAD 0·TB 4

  27. B8

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  28. B8

    Mangum struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 0·TB 4

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

TB

Home

0

Runs

4

6

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

6

TB

17

0

HR

3

0

BB

0

11

K

13

8

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TB vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    46.2%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.7%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.4%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.