MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3LAD

MIN

48-52

LAD

59-42

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

51,121 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
59.1%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.1%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.1%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAD vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.9± 2.4low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.5± 0.9high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high
Max MuncyLAD
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.9± 1.6high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.9± 2.8high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
0.9± 1.7low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.9± 0.9high
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

LAD

.718

OPS

.717

▶

.788

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.346

4.63

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.86

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.37

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.09

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

MIN 2 · LAD 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2
LAD	2	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. BuxtonCF	.292	4	2	2	1	1	1	0
W. Castro2B	.258	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.243	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. JeffersC	.262	3	0	2	0	0	2	0
K. Clemens1B	.229	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
C. CorreaSS	.263	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.233	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
M. WallnerRF	.214	2	0	2	0	0	2	0
H. BaderCF	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. LeeSS	.251	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	9	2	1	6	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.292

.258

.243

.262

.229

.263

.233

.214

.249

.251

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
D. FestaSP	5.1	4	4	4	1	5	81
L. VarlandRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	7
C. SandsRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	28
Team	8.0	7	5	5	1	8	116

Player

D. FestaSP

5.1

L. VarlandRP

0.2

C. SandsRP

2.0

Team

8.0

116

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. BettsSS	.241	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
S. OhtaniDH	.275	4	1	1	2	1	0	3
W. SmithC	.326	4	2	2	2	2	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.292	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. HernándezLF	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. ConfortoDH	.185	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. PagesCF	.282	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
H. KimSS	.320	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Edman2B	.223	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OutmanCF	.121	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	5	7	5	4	1	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. OhtaniDH	3.0	4	1	1	1	3	46
D. MaySP	4.2	5	0	0	3	4	100
T. ScottRP	0.2	0	1	1	2	0	22
K. YatesRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	9	2	2	6	7	177

Team

MIN

LAD

—

3 sub-models, blended.

LAD vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.