MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

TEX

61-62

TOR

72-51

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

42,260 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
60.1%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.9%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.3%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 3.2low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.7low

Hits

Cody FreemanTEX
1.3± 0.8low
Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 0.9high
Josh JungTEX
1.2± 0.6high

Total bases

Ernie ClementTOR
2.0± 2.3high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.9± 1.4high
Alejandro KirkTOR
1.8± 2.5low

RBIs

Alejandro KirkTOR
0.7± 1.1low
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 0.7high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.1± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

TOR

.701

OPS

.717

.703

.317

OBP

.319

.315

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.07

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.12

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TEX 5 · TOR 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	5
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Smith2B	.265	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. LangfordLF	.237	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. SeagerSS	.258	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. PedersonDH	.148	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. CarterCF	.246	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. Semien2B	.223	3	2	1	2	1	0	0
R. Tellez1B	.279	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
J. Jung3B	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. HigashiokaC	.259	4	1	1	3	1	0	2
J. Burger1B	.234	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	5	5	5	2	6	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.265

.237

.258

.148

.246

.223

.279

.242

.259

.234

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. deGromSP	5.0	2	0	0	0	5	84
C. WinnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
R. GarciaRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	11
S. ArmstrongRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	4
D. CoulombeRP	0.0	3	3	3	0	0	17
P. MatonRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	2	25
Team	8.0	8	6	6	2	7	151

Player

5.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

0.0

1.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. LukesRF	.252	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Bichette3B	.294	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.300	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
A. BargerRF	.264	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
D. VarshoCF	.230	3	1	0	1	0	1	1
A. KirkC	.296	4	1	2	4	1	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.358	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.282	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.223	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. SchneiderLF	.244	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.248	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	6	8	6	1	2	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. BassittSP	5.0	4	3	3	4	4	100
B. FisherRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
Y. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
M. FluhartyRP	0.2	0	1	1	1	1	9
L. VarlandRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	6
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
Team	9.0	5	5	5	6	11	153

Team

TEX

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.