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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
SEA

SEA

67-55

3
5
BAL

BAL

55-66

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
14,083 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

SEA 3 · BAL 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000020013
BAL000320005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    123
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 96
    163
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 96
    163
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    160
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    162
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 95
    24
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Aug 14·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Seattle Mariners, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jordan Westburg

Jordan Westburg

3B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA67-55
3
5
BAL55-66
SEA67-55·BAL55-66
SEA

SEA

67-55

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44001010
SPRINT26.941
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-55120000
SPRINT23.81
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-33112100
SPRINT28.688
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000001
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.818
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
2-33120010
SPRINT25.920
M. GarverM. Garver★C
1-44010002
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44010000
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33000000
Team8-3434383134
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. EvansL. Evans★SP
4.0332410
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.0122200
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
1.1000110
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
0.2000010
J. KowarJ. KowarRP
1.0000010
Team8.0454740
BAL

BAL

55-66

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-33100010
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
1-22210010
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44011001
SPRINT28.175
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
1-33111001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-22000021
D. JohnsonD. Johnson★CF
0-33100010
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-33011001
SPRINT26.530
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
0-11000020
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
0-33000000
G. AllenG. AllenCF
0-11000000
Team4-2525543074
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
5.1311120
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.2211011
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0100110
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
1.0000000
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
1.0211100
Team9.0833341

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Evans
    70 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      24%·85.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      23%·89.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      11%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
  • C. Legumina
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      61%·93.8 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      26%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      47%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      16%·92.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      16%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Kowar
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      80%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      50%·87.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SV
      33%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.5 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • T. Sugano
    81 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      20%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      17%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·78.2 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Akin
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      52%·84.9 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Enns
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • CH
      39%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      35%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      58%·86.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      8%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Strowd
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      60%·92.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      20%·82.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      20%·85.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

3

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Aug 12SEASEA1@BALBAL0
Aug 13SEASEA3@BALBAL4
Aug 14SEASEA3@BALBAL5today

Season series

BAL wins series 5-1

Jun 4BALBAL5@SEASEA1
Jun 5BALBAL3@SEASEA2
Jun 5BALBAL4@SEASEA3
Aug 12SEASEA1@BALBAL0
Aug 13SEASEA3@BALBAL4
Aug 14SEASEA3@BALBAL5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 4th Inning

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

L. Evans

L. Evans

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

BALBAL
J. Westburg

J. Westburg

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 2 R · 1.167 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat SEA 5-3.

Win probability

BAL vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 49% WP

A. Jackson · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Carlson out at second.

BALBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+17pp→ 85% WP

J. Jackson · singled to center, Johnson scored.

SEATop 9th Inning · 2-5
+10pp→ 17% WP

Raleigh · walked, Garver to second, Canzone to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000020013
BAL00032000—5

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · BAL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Jackson 2

0
2

Inn 5

Henderson 1

2
0

Inn 6

Rodr 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Arozarena 1

SEA
BAL

Play-by-play · 548 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 5

  2. T9

    Naylor grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 5

    +8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 5

  4. T9

    Dietrich Enns pitches to Josh Naylor

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 5

  5. T9

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 5

  6. T9

    Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to second, Canzone scored, Moore out at second, Garver to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 5

    +9pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  10. T9

    Dietrich Enns pitches to Randy Arozarena

    · ·

    SEA 3·BAL 5

  11. T9

    Moore ran for Raleigh

    ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  12. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  13. T9

    Raleigh walked, Garver to second, Canzone to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

    −10pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  19. T9

    Dietrich Enns pitches to Cal Raleigh

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  20. T9

    Raleigh hit for Young

    ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  21. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  22. T9

    Crawford flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

    +7pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  26. T9

    Dietrich Enns pitches to J.P. Crawford

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  27. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  28. T9

    Garver singled to center, Canzone to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

    −8pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 2·BAL 5

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

3

Runs

5

8

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

12

TB

5

1

HR

0

3

BB

7

4

K

4

16

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BAL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    45.0%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.7%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.4%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.